An overview of GOP race
McCain is also much stronger in South Carolina than he was in 2000. Right now he is leading and his opponents are splitting the opposition.1. All of the Republican candidates, with the exception of Romney, are broke. What money they have left they are deploying in South Carolina and Florida and hoping that the results there will enable them to raise more money to compete in the February 5th Super Tuesday contests. McCain is perhaps the least vulnerable to money woes, because he has the greatest name recognition nationally from his 2000 campaign. But if he loses in SC, he will be strapped financially in Florida. Huckabee has never had much money and knows how to live off the land, but his inability to mount a massive Michigan television advertising campaign consigned him to a weak third place finish there, as opposed to a 20-plus percentage point third place finish. The latter result would have helped him a lot in South Carolina.
Thompson's campaign is one big roll of the dice on South Carolina. You can't lose to Ron Paul in Michigan and Mike Huckabee in South Carolina and hope to be taken seriously. His whole fund-raising strategy is dependent on his finishing at least second in SC. Rudy Giuliani has somehow managed to spend all his money without having actually competed in any of the early primary states. He finished behind Ron Paul in Michigan. He has to win Florida or he's a goner.
2. In a weird way, the GOP presidential primary campaign now hinges on Mitt Romney. More specifically, it hinges on whether Romney will be willing to spend as much of his personal fortune as necessary to win the GOP nomination. That could amount to as much as $40 million, on top of the $17 million he has already contributed to the cause. If he does decide to fully fund his own campaign, then he will be able to outspend his rivals on television advertising by as much as 10-to-1 in state after state after state (think: February 5th). If someone asks you: "can Mitt Romney win the GOP nomination?" ask them: "is he willing to write the check?"
3. South Carolina is the last state where we will see campaign organizations. After South Carolina, the rest of the campaign will be on television and on the Internet. There is no way to "organize" 17 states that are having primaries on the same day. And with all of the campaigns so short on cash, every available dollar must necessarily go toward media advertising. So paid media and unpaid media (news media coverage) will determine, to a large degree, the outcome of the race.
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6. McCain is much weaker in 2008 than he was in 2000. In 2000, McCain received over 600,000 votes in the Michigan primary. In 2008, he received just over 250,000 votes in the Michigan primary. That is substantial attrition no matter how you look at it. Republican primary voters who like President George W. Bush didn't vote for McCain in Michigan. There are a lot of Republican primary voters in the South who like George W. Bush. This is bad news for McCain going into South Carolina.
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His most important point is about Romney. I think he is committed to the race and will spend the money to get the nomination at this point. He does not poll as well against the Democrats as some of the other GOP candidates, but he has demonstrated an organizational strength as well as the financial commitment to win. He is running virtually uncontested in Nevada right now, while everyone else is rolling the dice in either South Carolina or Florida. As conservatives like Rush Limbaugh have pointed out, he is doing well with Republican voters even in states he did not carry. That may be meaningful when he gets to the states that do not let Democrats and Independents vote in Republican races.
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