The next few days of the GOP race

Washington Post:

As the presidential race shifts to New Hampshire, the Democratic candidates are continuing the intensive organizational battle that defined their race in Iowa. But the Republican candidates find themselves confronted with what amounts to an entirely different race, with a different slate of top contenders, a new set of issues and only five days to sort it all out.

The Iowa GOP contest became, in effect, a two-person race between former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, with Huckabee in the end overcoming his severe financial disadvantage to win easily. The race was dominated by the issue of immigration and the spectacle of a Baptist minister taking on a Mormon in a state with a large population of evangelical Christians.

New Hampshire, however, presents a different two-man Republican showdown, this one between Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who has focused most of his efforts in the state where he upset George W. Bush in 2000.

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani is in the mix as well but has scaled back his campaign here in recent months to focus on Florida and other large states whose primaries will come later. Huckabee hopes to translate his Iowa victory into at least a respectable showing in a state where he has a very limited organization and a much smaller evangelical base from which to draw support. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) threatens to break into double digits, and perhaps embarrass Giuliani in the process, in a state receptive to his libertarian pitch.

But the focus will be on Romney and McCain, with the debate shifting to Romney's attacks on the senator over his past stances on immigration and taxes, and McCain countering by questioning the former governor's consistency on a variety of issues and lack of foreign policy experience. Harsh ads using those approaches are crowding the local airwaves.

The McCain campaign relishes its position here. After going all but broke and ceding defeat in Iowa, McCain has been able to invest more time here than Romney has, and is seeing much less competition from Giuliani for the national security-minded voters that both are pursuing. Romney's defeat in Iowa further boosts McCain's chances here.

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New Hampshire is much more important to McCain than to Romney. If McCain loses, it will be hard for him to get the funding needed to move to the next states. Romney does not have that problem. McCain is hammering him on his weak points, and that may have more long term effect regardless of who wins. Giuliani is still saying the race really does not start until Florida and in terms of the delegate count, he is right. Giuliani has to fight the momentum count though, and that is his great gamble.