McCain's small victory

Adam Nagourney:

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In almost any other year, a victory like this — particularly in a state with a history of backing the eventual Republican nominee — would send the winner hurtling down the road toward the nomination.

But perhaps not this year, and perhaps not this candidate.

At the very least, Mr. McCain’s victory has helped him slow the rise of one of his main rivals, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who had looked to South Carolina, with its sizable base of evangelical Christians, as fertile ground for his appeal. After winning in Iowa, Mr. Huckabee has now lost three successive primaries.

Also on Saturday, Mitt Romney won the largely uncontested Nevada caucuses, giving him at least the claim of having won two contests in a row. On a more practical and potentially more meaningful level, he also captured more delegates on Saturday than Mr. McCain did.

Given that Mr. McCain’s candidacy was almost declared dead a few months ago, his comeback has been impressive. But so far he has benefited from a campaign calendar that could not have been better tailored to his political needs. His first two victories came in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where independents, who often seem more enthusiastic about Mr. McCain than members of his party do, are permitted to vote in the primaries.

The terrain from here is markedly different, starting Jan. 29 in Florida, where the Republican primary is open only to Republicans.

“He still has significant skepticism that he has to overcome in the Republican base,” said Gary L. Bauer, who sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 and is not endorsing anyone at this time. “The real test will be how well he can secure the Republican base as we head toward Super Tuesday.” Mr. Bauer added, “On balance, in most states, to get the nomination you’ve got to do very well among registered Republicans, and that is going to become increasingly important as other candidates drop out of the race.”

An exit poll in South Carolina offered evidence of the challenge Mr. McCain faces: 8 in 10 of the voters in the primary described themselves as Republicans, and just 3 in 10 of them voted for Mr. McCain. The finding suggests what Mr. McCain’s rivals were saying Saturday night: that he might not have won without the help of voters outside his party.

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When it comes to Republicans, McCain has his own likability problem that is at least equal to Hillary's likability problem. While abortion has not really been an issue in the early contests, it will probably become one in Florida where Giuliani is finally taking a stand and that may help McCain overcome his bad points like tax cuts, campaign finance, ANWR, and immigration. Rudy is much better on those issues, but we will now see if abortion trumps them. On the most important issue in the election, the Iraq war there is little difference in any of the Republican candidates.