McCain's conservative problem

Fred Barnes:

John McCain has a problem. After winning South Carolina's primary last Saturday, he should be the overwhelming favorite to capture the Republican presidential nomination. He's not, at least not yet, and the reason is that he's alienated so many conservatives over the past eight years.

Mr. McCain may become the Republican nominee anyway -- in spite of thunderous opposition by conservatives including radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, former Sen. Rick Santorum, and American Conservative Union (ACU) head David Keene. Even then, to win the general election, he must find a way to reconcile with conservatives and unify the Republican Party.

Mr. McCain will have to take the initiative to repair the relationship, and he appears ready to do just that.

His victory speech in South Carolina marked a new step. Rather than dwell on the hardy perennials of his campaign message, national security and patriotism, Mr. McCain spoke more broadly about his conservative goals. "We want government to do its job, not your job," he said, "and to do it with less of your money." He praised "free markets, low taxes and small government."

Moreover, Mr. McCain intends to go beyond conservative boilerplate and actually campaign as a conservative. His congressional voting record is predominantly conservative (ACU rating 82.3%), qualifying him to do so. He's already stepped outside his comfort zone on taxes, endorsing a cut in the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%.

If he echoes the talking points dispatched to his surrogates over the weekend, he'll be fine. Besides touting Mr. McCain's ability to step in as "commander in chief on Day One," they were urged to emphasize what an ally calls a "Kemp-Gramm mishmash" of tax and spending cuts. Another point to stress: "Winning in November" is crucial to putting conservative judges on the Supreme Court.

It's worth noting the presence of supply-sider Jack Kemp and spending foe Phil Gramm on the McCain team. In fact, the Arizona senator has attracted an impressive array of conservative supporters, including Republican Sens. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Trent Lott of Mississippi, former Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma, and ex-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

...

The McCain campaign claims that it's only a handful of conservative luminaries who oppose him. Not true. Complaints about him are rife among grassroots Republicans, and exit polls from the two primaries he won provide unmistakable evidence. He split self-identified Republicans with Mr. Huckabee in South Carolina and Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. But he barely won "somewhat conservative" voters in those states, and lost lopsidedly with "very conservative" voters.

Mr. McCain won both primaries because of his appeal to moderates and independents, indicating that he'd be a strong general election candidate. But he's got to take the Republican nomination first. That means winning without independents in more states with Republican-only primaries.

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McCain won because the conservative vote was split. He is polling at between one-fourth and one-third of the Republican vote. There are four reasons for this lack luster showing:

1. Campaign finance reform;
2. Immigration reform;
3. ANWR;
4. Tax cuts.

There are probably some others that upset conservatives, but these are the big four and he has been at best grudging in addressing these concerns. His media supporters probably support him on all four and therefore they cannot understand why people like Rush Limbaugh won't let go of their principals. In their attempt to crown him the front runner they overlook the fact that he has done poorer in both New Hampshire and South Carolina than he did eight years ago. I think it is unlikely that he can reconcile with these groups because the breach of trust is too deep. If he gets the nomination, he may get some grudging support because on national security and spending he is with the base and is much better than either Hillary Clinton or Obama. but he is wrong on all four of those issues as far as most conservatives are concerned. Breaking bread with Rush Limbaugh is not going to break the impasse on those four issues.

Of the four, surprisingly, I think his opposition to ANWR is the most idiotic. The opposition is based on an appeal to emotion and not logic or science. It is totally irrational and there is no good faith redeeming argument against drilling in ANWR. None. It is all based on some goo-goo, pseudo environmentalist, pseudo pristine, nonsense.

While there is a good faith case to be made for the other three, it is one that most conservatives reject strongly. Opposition to ANWR harms national security and does zero to protect the environment. Perhaps if people like McCain spent some times around oil wells they would have a better understanding of the issue.