Insiders who dislike McCain

Jay Costs:

Since his win in New Hampshire, many have come to view John McCain as the Republican frontrunner. He has a lead in the RCP national average, and he is the favorite at InTrade's future's market.

I think this talk is a bit hasty. Most obviously, McCain and Romney are tied in Michigan - and the polls over the last three weeks have been largely conditioned by who has won. So, who knows how the Michigan results will influence South Carolina and the rest of the nation.

There is another reason I am hesitant about this bandwagon. I think that the problem that nearly destroyed his candidacy last summer is still there - and it could yet do him in. The problem? Conservative leaders do not care for his candidacy.

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McCain's problem has more to do with conservative leaders than the rank and file. You probably have picked up on this impressionistically. National Review endorsed Romney. Rush Limbaugh has been openly critical of McCain's candidacy. Human Events is no longer the significant intellectual force it was three decades ago - but I thought it was telling that it endorsed Thompson after McCain won New Hampshire.

If you examined McCain only on paper, this would surprise you. By many metrics, he is the classic Republican frontrunner. He has been in Congress for more than 25 years. He was on Bob Dole's vice-presidential short list. He was the runner-up in the 2000 contest. He has a lifetime American Conservative Union (ACU) rating of 82.3. Above all, he has great credibility on two issues that will be important in November, the Iraq war and the war on terror.

Nevertheless, opinion makers do not much care for his candidacy. Apparently, neither does the Republican congressional caucus. Examining congressional endorsements for McCain and Romney, excluding in-state supporters (as they often act more out of home state pride than ideological proximity), we find some interesting results. 34 Republicans have endorsed Mitt Romney, while just 24 have endorsed McCain. Furthermore, Romney's supporters are more in line with conservative opinion. Their average 2006 ACU rating was 84.1, and 26 of them come from states Bush won in 2004. Meanwhile, the average 2006 ACU rating for McCain's supporters is 70.7, and just 12 of them come from Bush states. In light of McCain's résumé, this is consequential. He should have locked up most members of the Republican caucus, but he has not.

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By themselves, conservative leaders cannot stop McCain. The liberalization of the nomination process has left the upper echelons of both parties less able to determine directly who wins. However, they have indirect power. They can influence which candidates are seen by the voters to be credible candidates. Through their dialogue with one another as well as their direct communications to the public - they help establish voter expectations, and therefore the range of viable alternatives voters perceive. The more they talk up a candidate's viability, the more viable he becomes. The less they talk it up, the less viable he becomes. This is the power to set the agenda. Conservative leaders could help take McCain off the agenda if he falters, or they could help to place an opponent on the agenda to stop him.

Final point. Everything that has been written here applies to Mike Huckabee all the more. Huckabee is even more unacceptable to conservative leaders (he has the endorsement of only three out-of-state Republican members of Congress). His campaign even seems to be courting their contempt. McCain, to his credit, has worked hard since the immigration bill not to thumb his nose at conservative leaders. But not Huckabee. And I think that they would only accept Huckabee's nomination after he has won a majority of delegates. Until then, they'll find somebody, anybody to oppose him.

I have been predicting the McCain backlash and this appears to be the week it is surfacing, big time. While Costs says that McCain is tied in Michigan the Detroit News says he is down by five to Romney. His globo warming position is going to hurt him in Michigan where it is putting autoworkers out of jobs and killing profits. While McCain is fond of the term "my friend" there are many people who think it does not apply to them.

John Hawkins has more on what he calls a conservative nightmare. This poll shows McCain with a slight lead in Michigan now.