Feb. 5 is date that election shape will be formed

Karl Rove:

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"I don't think Huckabee is likely to get anywhere near the same percentage of the vote in new Hampshire. Iowa is different from New Hampshire... New Hampshire is one of the more secular states in the country, whereas in Iowa, there is a much larger segment of the caucusgoers that are evangelicals, born again, pentacostals and charismatics."

"I think it's likely that we will [have a clear frontrunner by Feb. 5], there's no guarantee, but I think if somebody is consistently winning, I think there will be consolidation by the Fifth."

On Rudy's late-state strategy: "It's an interesting one. It's worth remembering, in 1992 Bill Clinton did not win his first primary until Georgia on Super Tuesday. Now, the difference is, Super Tuesday comes a lot earlier in 2008 than it did in 1992. I'd also note that not participating in Iowa was not lethal for John McCain back in 2000."

"Iowa plays an important role, but look, fewer people participated in the two caucuses than the number of people who vote in Wichita, Kansas. Fewer people participated in the caucuses than vote in Dakota County, Minnesota, and I'll bet most people don't know where Dakota County is. This is a relatively small number of people."

He notes that Barack Obama has "a very liberal voting record" and notes that he "fervently worked" against a ban on partial-birth abortion.

The specifics of Obama's policy positions is what will defeat him. Opponents have to get beyond his personality and charm. Rove puts the contest in perspective with his comparison to cities and counties with a greater number of voters than participated in the Iowa caucuses. I also think he is right about the February 5 shakeout. Iowa has knocked off two guys who never had a chance, Biden and Dodd and could knock of Richardson who is really running for Vice President. Those left standing after the first week of February will show whose strategy was best.