Al Qaeda's shrinking toehold in Iraq

Bill Roggio:

Nearly one year to the day of the announcement of the "surge" of US forces to Iraq and the change in counterinsurgency plan, Iraqi and Coalition forces have shrunk al Qaeda's ability to conduct operations inside Iraq, a senior US commander said.

During a press briefing in Baghdad, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the Commander of Multinational Corps Iraq, said al Qaeda in Iraq has been ejected from its strongholds in the cities to the rural regions of Iraq.

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Al Qaeda in Iraq's network has been significantly degraded, but is still a threat. Al Qaeda remains active in regions near Miqdadiyah, Mosul, Hawijah, Samarra, and southeast of Baghdad in the Arab Jabour region. "Although the group remains a dangerous threat, its capabilities have been diminished," said Odierno. "Al Qaeda has been pushed out of urban centers like Baghdad, Ramadi, Fallujah and Baqubah, and forced into isolated rural areas. Many of their top leaders have been eliminated, and finding qualified replacements is increasingly difficult for them." Multinational Forces Iraq also estimates it has significantly degraded al Qaeda's ability to fund operations by dismantling its financier networks and leaders.

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Roggio also provides a map which graphically demonstrates how little area al Qaeda has to work with now. This shrinking area has made it easier for the US and Iraqis to concentrate force and fire power on the remaining elements. I think in recognition of this al Qaeda has deemphasized its Iraq operation and has moved its central front to Pakistan. Pakistan needs to move quickly to a counterinsurgency strategy or it will be experiencing what Iraq did last year before the surge took effect.