Al Qaeda losing in Pakistan

Strategy Page:

Al Qaeda would have its hands full if it tries to take over Pakistan. Aside from the fact that the vast majority of the population is not fundamentalist, those who are tend to the be the fiercely tribal types who don't want Arabs telling them what to do. While South Asians and Arabs have traded for thousands of years, they have never developed very warm relations. One reason the Taliban lost power so quickly in Afghanistan in 2001 was because the large al Qaeda presence there. The Arabs, who were the largest component of al Qaeda, exhibited open disdain for the Afghans (who, like most South Asians, are Indo-European).

Al Qaeda's biggest problem is that most of their support is among the Pushtun tribes, and these only comprise 15 percent of the population. They are also the poorest and least educated minority. A unique feature of Pakistan is that it's 165 million people are all minorities, although the Punjabis (44 percent of the population) are the dominant one (not just in numbers, but in education and income as well). Closely allied with the Punjabis are the Sinds (14 percent), and together these two groups pretty much run the country. What these lowland people have not been able to run are the Pushtun and Baluch tribes up in the hills. This has been a problem for thousands of years. The hill tribesmen are fearless warriors, but the lowlanders are more numerous, disciplined and, in the end, more than a match militarily for the tribes. The hill people can threaten and raid, but they can't conquer.

...

This may explain why Pakistan has been so passive in its approach to the al Qaeda challenge. I don't think it will stop their relentless attacks and I don't think that Pakistan will overnight start an aggressive attack on al Qaeda. It will be a challenge to motivate the Pakistan government to do what it necessary.