Wagner forces around Bakhmut no longer combat effective?
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troops to replace Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut on May 10. Prigozhin published a letter to Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu on May 6 declaring that Wagner will hand over its positions to Akhmat units at exactly midnight on May 10, when Prigozhin claims Wagner will have entirely run out of combat potential.[1] Prigozhin expressed his confidence that Akhmat forces can capture the remaining 2.5 square kilometers of Bakhmut that remain under Ukrainian control.[2] Kadyrov responded to Prigozhin by stating he has addressed a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin signaling his readiness to take Bakhmut and claimed that Chechen units are already working on a strategy with the Russian MoD for the Chechens to take over Wagner‘s positions.[3]
Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely aim to frame the Russian MoD and regular Russian troops as ineffective and set conditions to blame the MoD for any Russian setbacks in the Bakhmut area. Prigozhin’s decision to hand responsibility for Bakhmut over to the forces of a fellow silovik deliberately excludes the conventional Russian airborne (VDV) troops already operating on Wagner’s northern and southern flanks around Bakhmut, framing the battle of Bakhmut strictly as a Wagner – and now Akhmat – concern. This decision reflects Prigozhin’s ongoing distrust of the Russian military command, and postures himself as independent from the Russian military establishment and allows him to save face if Wagner forces cannot capture Bakhmut and avoiding a repeat of the capture of Soledar – where the Russian MoD took credit for what Prigozhin claimed was a Wagner success.[4] Kadyrov, in turn, could benefit from the positive reputational effect of entering such a high-profile operation with the backing of Prigozhin’s personal notoriety. Kadyrov recently met with several high-ranking Russian officials in Russia, likely to ameliorate his own reputation within Russian political circles.[5] The switch from Wagner to Akhmat troops may also set conditions to blame the Russian MoD for future failures down the line — if Akhmat forces experience similar difficulties to Wagner and are unable to completely capture Bakhmut, Prigozhin and Kadyrov may feasibly blame the MoD for failing to adequately support their efforts. Alternatively, if the Russian MoD prevents Akhmat forces from relieving Wagner (as it is unclear if Prigozhin and Kadyrov can execute this maneuver without any Russian MoD support as they claim), the two siloviki and their allies will likely brandish the hypothetical that if only the Russian MoD had supported the maneuver, Chechen forces would have captured Bakhmut quickly.
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Wagner leadership has been complaining about the lack of resources provided by Russia in recent days and the group may also be running low on troops because of high casualties in their attempted offensive operations in Bakhmut. This also could be happening because Prigozhin wants to go over to the defensive and he may plan on taking his remaining troops to a defensive position in anticipation of the Ukraine offensive. At this point, it looks like Bakhmut is a costly battle for an area of little strategic value.
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"There is more and more information about low morale among enemy forces. Commanders of an occupation forces unit stationed in the village of Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are openly referring to their subordinates as ‘cannon fodder’.
[Russian] military personnel also complain about medical care, and a lack of personal protection and equipment. Around 50% of military personnel are unable to obtain their payment cards and are concerned that their families might not receive their money in case of their death."
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Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Rains Incendiaries On Bakhmut
It appears that the Russians have launched a large incendiary weapons attack on the heavily embattled city in Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
Video shot from a drone has emerged showing the tell-tale droplets of brightly glowing incendiary munitions purportedly burning all over a portion of Bakhmut.
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By covering a wide area with very hot burning droplets, incendiaries lay waste to some structures, certain kinds of materiel, foliage, vehicles, and especially flesh.
Block-by-block fighting among the ruins of a once thriving coal-mining city has proved extremely costly to both sides. Russia increasing the use of these horrific area weapons in Bakhmut would not come as a major surprise as their advance has stalled and a major Ukrainian counteroffensive looms.
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Russia Evacuates Civilians From Parts of Ukraine Ahead of Kyiv Counteroffensive
Russian-installed officials ordered civilians in 18 occupied communities near the front line to evacuate as both sides appear to be bracing for a widely expected Ukrainian offensive.
Yevgeniy Balitsky, the Russian-installed head of occupied parts of Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region, said the evacuation was needed to “strengthen security,” amid an uptick in Ukrainian attacks. The city of Enerhodar, next to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, is among the communities being evacuated.
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And:
Under pretext of "evacuation", Russians want to conscript residents of occupied territories
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Ukraine launches more than 10 drones on Crimea - Russia-installed official
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Success for Ukraine in its long-awaited counterattack against Russia could spell the complete “collapse” of Vladimir Putin’s military or even the Russian economy, a Ukrainian minister predicts.
Speaking in an interview with The Independent, deputy defence minister Volodymyr Havrylov was deliberately vague about the timing of the offensive, which is expected imminently as the mud and rains of spring give way to more favourable fighting conditions.
But when it does come – “very soon” was the timing set out this week by Volodymr Zelensky – the offensive will expose Russia’s tightly controlled propaganda regarding the war effort and lead to a reckoning among ordinary Russians, said Mr Havrylov.
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Melitopol mayor: Occupiers' "evacuation" going too fast, they may be preparing provocations
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Recalling the way things happened in Tokmak, Fedorov said that starting on Friday, buses or convoys of buses have been departing from the city once every 20-30 minutes, carrying "only a third of civilians, and the rest are disguised military personnel." According to the mayor, these buses are mostly going to Berdiansk, where the civilians are staying, while military personnel continue to be taken to Mariupol. Also, in Tokmak, there are crazy queues for bread, and most gas stations are out of gasoline.
Fedorov also stated that the "evacuation" is not just taking place in the 16 settlements which the invaders have publicly announced.
"Using the example of my native Melitopol, we can see the following situaiton: since yesterday, buses have been standing on the territory of Gymnasium No.1 and the central Peremohy Square, taking away mostly collaborators and those insane enough to have agreed with the invaders to go somewhere else. Additionally,
today, the Russians withdrew from some administrative office buildings. For example, they left Bohdan Khmelnytskyi Street, 70, where their propaganda Z-TV was located, the executive committee of the Melitopol City Council at Hrushevskyi Street, 5, and other administrative buildings, burning all the documents there," the mayor said.
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Russia says there's a problem with billions of rupees it has in India that need to be converted
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Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted the widening trade deficit with India, which has been a top buyer of Russian oil since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine last year.
"As for rupees, this is a problem because there are billions of rupees accumulated in accounts at Indian banks and we need to use this money," Lavrov told reporters in India on Friday. "For this, rupees should be converted into other currencies. This is being discussed."
The comments come a day after Reuters reported that Russia and India have suspended negotiations over using rupees for trade between the two countries.
Russia prefers to be paid in Chinese yuan, which has become the most-used foreign currency in Russia. Meanwhile, Moscow has reportedly been hesitant about using the rupee due to exchange-rate volatility.
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