Ukraine Russian volunteer corps exposed Russian vulnerabilities before defeat
Russian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) in the region on May 23. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Western Military District (WMD) Border Guards units defeated the raid and expelled all “saboteurs” from Belgorod Oblast.[1] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that the “counterterrorism” operation had ended but called on civilians who evacuated to wait before returning to the border settlements.[2] Russian authorities later announced on May 23 that authorities evacuated 100 civilians from nine border settlements in Belgorod Oblast on May 22 after Gladkov originally denied conducting formal evacuations.[3] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not hold an emergency meeting of the Russian Security Council to discuss the Belgorod raid but will instead discuss the situation during the Security Council’s planned May 26 meeting, likely in an effort to project confidence about Russian handling of the situation.[4]
Russian forces likely pushed the RDK and LSR forces at least to the Kozinka border settlement and possibly out of Russian territory as of May 23. Kozinka is located approximately 76km southeast of Sumy City. Russian sources amplified footage of Russian forces firing on RDK and LSR vehicle positions near the Kozinka border checkpoint overnight and claimed that Russian forces recaptured Kozinka and its border checkpoint in the morning.[5] Geolocated footage from Russian state media shows damaged and destroyed vehicles at the checkpoint.[6] Some Russian sources claimed that RDK and LSR forces entrenched themselves in the Kozinka church but that preliminary reports suggest Russian forces may have ousted the pro-Ukrainian forces by the evening.[7] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces began clearing operations in Kozinka and Glotovo (immediately east of Kozinka) on May 23.[8] Geolocated footage posted on May 23 shows the aftermath of shelling Gora Podol (about 6km northwest of Kozinka) and Russian infantry conducting patrols between Grayvoron (about 7km northwest of Kozinka) and Gora Podol, suggesting that RDK and LSR personnel no longer hold or never held positions in the settlement.[9] It is unclear whether the RDK and LSR captured any villages on May 22 or May 23, however. The LSR claimed that LSR and RDK personnel continued to operate in Belgorod Oblast on May 23, however.[10]
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A relatively small group of Russian volunteers was able to drive into Russia well past the "border guards' and force the Russians to use troops that were likely reserve forces for operations within Ukraine. This had to be an embarrassment for Putin and his supporters and demonstrated how vulnerable Russia is to cross-border attacks. More such attacks could force the Russian MOD to transfer troops from Ukraine to defend the motherland.
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According to Ukrainian military analysts, the three most strategically advantageous directions for the major offensive have been identified as follows: the left-bank part of Kherson Oblast, leading towards the isthmuses that connect to Crimea; the coastal area of Zaporizhzhya Oblast, south of Zaporizhzhya towards Melitopol, effectively severing the “land corridor” to Crimea; and Luhansk Oblast, extending from Svatove eastward to the state border.
Preparatory activities, similar to those preceding the liberation of the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson area, are currently underway in these three designated directions.
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Eight people have been injured and several buildings have been destroyed in the clashes, according to local Russian governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, who said the situation on the ground was “extremely tense” as authorities continue to hunt for the alleged saboteurs.
On Monday, the Liberty of Russia Legion claimed responsibility for the incident on Telegram, adding that its forward units had even pushed farther east into the town of Graivoron.
The Kremlin claimed the saboteurs entered Russian territory through its borders with Ukraine, which has denied any involvement in the incident.
“We are Russians, like you,” the group said in a video. “We are people like you. We want our children to grow up in peace. It is time to put an end to the dictatorship of the Kremlin.”
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Ukraine’s military confirmed the incursion into Belgorod. Defense Ministry spokesman Andrii Yusov said that the Russian partisans had acted to help establish a “security zone in the border regions of Russia bordering Ukraine.”
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Events in Belgorod Oblast cause information shocks in Russia
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"Some milbloggers fixated on the fact that the RDK [The Russian Volunteer Corps – ed.] and LSR [The Freedom of Russia Legion] are comprised of mostly Russians and labeled them traitors to Russia, baselessly accusing them of working under the GUR [The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine].
Several milbloggers additionally speculated that the attack was a purposeful information operation intended to distract from the recent Russian capture of Bakhmut and to instill panic in the Russian information space in advance of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin remarked that he has long warned that such cross-border raids may be part of a wider Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin took advantage of the incident to accuse the Russian government and its bureaucratic inertia of contributing to the attack and criticized the Russian Ministry of Defence for being unable to strengthen Russian borders and defend Russia.
The first observed line of Russian defensive fortifications notably runs 2km in front of Gora Podol, and the suggestion that RDK forces managed to penetrate the defensive line emphasizes the weakness of such fortifications at least when not fully manned by well-prepared and well-equipped soldiers."
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We should all pause, take a deep breath, and look at why Putin would suddenly try to declare a great victory over Ukrainian forces today, despite there being nothing of Bakhmut left to rule.
The fundamental reason is simple: he has just had one of the worst weekends of his war. Not militarily, but politically.
First there was Zelensky’s visit to the G7 in Hiroshima and the Arab summit in Jeddah, where the Ukrainian shook hands with his allies as well as leaders of countries more friendly to Putin. He was received with sympathy at both. India’s Prime Minister Modi lamented the human cost of the war and said far more than many expected, committing to finding a way forward to the end of the conflict. His remarks were hardly those of a great friend of Vladimir Putin.
But of far more significance was President Biden’s decision to allow European countries to give F-16s to Kyiv. In my view, it hammered the final nail into the coffin of a Russian victory in Ukraine. It’s no wonder Putin is urgently seeking to urgently change the narrative about the future shape of the war by declaring a seismic victory in Bakhmut.
The significance of these F-16s cannot be underestimated. Air superiority really matters for combined forces manoeuvres. There’s a reason why so many modern wars against conventional armed forces were over so quickly, such as in the Gulf: air power. Not only this, but F-16s will make a future invasion of Ukraine by Russia almost impossible in the future: they are devastating machines and will act as a powerful deterrent. Western after-burners must be rattling the windows of the Kremlin to breaking point.
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General Staff: Russian forces unsuccessfully attempt to advance on village near Bakhmut
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on the village of Khromove near Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update on May 23.
Over the past day, Russian forces also carried out airstrikes along the Bakhmut front in Donetsk Oblast, namely in Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Ozarianivka, according to the report.
Several settlements along the Bakhmut front were impacted by Russian shelling, including Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Bakhmut, and New York.
According to the General Staff, Bakhmut and Marinka remain the "epicenter" of the fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
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Ukrainian air defense uses Patriot systems in ways that surprised the US – expert interview
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Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons Stockpile as 'Dissident' Invasion of Russia Continues
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