The Ukraine tactical iniative at Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are a continuation of the localized counter-attacks Ukrainian forces have been conducting for some days and do not reflect the start of a major new operation. Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.[1] The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Russian forces yielded 570 meters of territory north of Bakhmut, which is consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s statement that Ukrainian forces had advanced 500 meters north of Bakhmut and 1,000 meters south of Bakhmut.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,700 meters in the past day, and the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated that the brigade’s counterattacks expanded the Ukrainian salient in the Bakhmut area to 2,000 meters wide by 700 meters deep.[3]
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area. Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[6] The limited nature of Wagner’s offensive operations in Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces began assaulting one of the final Ukrainian fortified areas in western Bakhmut.[7] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official and prominent Russian information space voice Vladimir Rogov claimed that Wagner forces cut the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road in western Bakhmut on May 17, although ISW is unable to confirm this claim.[8] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces advanced 260 meters in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.28 square kilometers of the city.[9] One milblogger optimistically claimed that Wagner forces increased their pace of advance following Russian ammunition deliveries to Wagner, though Prigozhin’s claimed daily rate of advance has remained largely consistent.[10]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut. Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement.[11] Prigozhin and Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city....
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It is not clear whether this is an organized retreat by the Russians or the success of Ukraine's local offensive around Bakhmut. It is clear that Ukraine believes its offensive is responsible. To the extent that Russia is trying to augment the Wagner group, it looks like that maneuver has failed at this time. The fact that both the advances are measured in meters indicates that Russia does not have the capacity for mobilized combined arms operations at this time in the fight for Bakhmut.
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The reserves of the occupiers in this direction were liquidated, in particular several Russian ammunition depots.
It is reported that successful assault operations were carried out by fighters of the 1st Assault and 1st Mechanised Battalions.
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Why does Putin need Bakhmut, and what did the drone attack on the Kremlin change
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From a strategic point of view, coming to Bakhmut and its complete capture does not provide such apparent opportunities for occupying other cities of the Donetsk region. Therefore, I am still inclined to think that the Russians hoped that Bakhmut would be the place where they would destroy the Ukrainian military and thus prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from launching an offensive against Russian positions.
Read also: 3rd Assault Brigade conducts successful advance on western outskirts of Bakhmut
The fact that "Wagnerians" are generally fighting in Bakhmut, and other parts of the Russian Armed Forces are elsewhere, preparing for the Ukrainian offensive or developing some other plans, possibly for an offensive of Russian troops in other Ukrainian regions, suggests that Bakhmut was not a priority target for the Russian army. They also used Bakhmut to grind Yevgeny Prigozhin's reserves. This is also part of the struggle in the power structures of the Russian Federation for a place near the throne.
The public quarrel between the leader of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, and the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, Shoigu, means restoring the position of a court jester, traditional for the Russian authorities. Russian rulers always wanted someone who could shout, scare, and grab beards while having no real political will and influence on actual decisions. It is enough to read the history of any Russian government to find such a fool. Moreover, it is worth mentioning that these foolish actions sometimes gained enormous influence, but only when the monarch wanted it. Without the monarch, they mean nothing.
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Over the course of today, Ukrainian aircraft carried out six airstrikes on areas where Russian military personnel and equipment were concentrated. Ukraine’s Defence Forces downed 21 Russian cruise missiles and seven reconnaissance drones.
Units of Ukraine’s Rocket Forces and Artillery struck an area where Russian military personnel and equipment were concentrated, an ammunition storage point, three field artillery units, an anti-aircraft missile system, seven electronic warfare systems, and a radar.
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Russia fires 30 cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets; Ukraine says 29 were shot down
Russia fired 30 cruise missiles against different parts of Ukraine early Thursday in the latest nighttime test of Ukrainian air defenses, which shot down 29 of them, officials said.
One person died and two were wounded by a Russian missile that got through and struck an industrial building in the southern region of Odesa, according to Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the region's military administration.
Amid the recently intensified Russian air assaults, China said its special envoy met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during talks in Kyiv earlier this week with Ukraine's chief diplomat.
Beijing's peace proposal has so far yielded no apparent breakthrough in the war, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Thursday that the warring parties needed to “accumulate mutual trust” for progress to be made.
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Russian Kalibr missile crashes in occupied Crimea, local media reports
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Russian troops systematically use Kalibr missiles to attack mainland Ukraine, typically launched from warships stationed in the Black Sea.
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Finland is waiting to hear the European Union's stance on the fate of Russians who have fled conscription before making any decisions about granting them asylum.
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Former NATO commander Sir Richard Shirreff has warned that unless the West increases its support for Ukraine, it could get pulled into a direct conflict with Russia.
Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Sir Richard said that the war was at an inflection point, and the West needed to step up and increase its support for Ukraine in defeating the Russian invasion.
"Either the West doubles down now to give Ukraine the tools it really needs to do the job in a series of sustained counteroffensives, or the West faces — I think NATO faces — the very real possibility in two to three years' time of potentially having to intervene to support the Ukrainians [to] achieve final victory," he said.
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