Withdrawal of Wagner group from Bakhmut leads to transfer of Russian troops from other fronts
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The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces have likely entered Bakhmut city as of May 24 and begun clearing operations.[8] ISW previously observed elements of the 132nd Separate Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade of the DNR’s 1st Army Corps operating in the Bakhmut direction after previously fighting in the Avdiivka area.[9] It is unclear at this time if elements of the 132nd Brigade are operating inside of the city, but DNR Head Denis Pushilin previously raised the DNR flag in Bakhmut - which likely indicates that the DNR forces are assuming control over Bakhmut.[10] Pushilin also indicated that DNR elements were clearing the city as of May 23.[11]
The Russian transfer of DNR elements to Bakhmut may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command has heavily committed a variety of DNR elements to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[12] Russian attacks around Avdiivka-Donetsk City area appear to have been decreasing in recent days, which may be connected to the transfer of DNR forces to Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted 13 combat operations in eastern Ukraine, of which seven attacks were in the Marinka area (about 19km west from Donetsk City).[13] The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported that Russian forces attacked 20 times in Marinka alone on the day Wagner forces declared victory over Bakhmut on May 20.[14] The Russian offensives around Avdiivka have been steadily decreasing since at least April 8 after the Russian military command attempted to intensify offensive operations near the settlement in mid-March, and the transfer of DNR units to Bakhmut may further slow Russian efforts on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[15] The Russian military command may be transferring DNR units operating in the well-defended Avdiivka-Donetsk City area to avoid making other directions vulnerable or to ensure quick reinforcements for Bakhmut city.
The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut’s flanks with regular formations, however. The UK MoD assessed that elements of the 31st Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have likely transferred from the Svatove-Kreminna line to reinforce Bakhmut’s flanks in recent weeks.[16] Ukrainian military officials previously reported that Russian forces are transferring unspecified VDV, motorized rifle, and special forces units to the Bakhmut direction after successful Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut‘s flanks.[17] ISW also observed Cossack units operating in Soledar, although these units likely were previously operating in the area.[18]
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These transfers from active combat operations suggest that Russia is still hurting for combat-effective troops. That likely means that Russia will continue to be hurting for combat effectiveness for many future operations. This lack of combat force has not changed Putin's maximalist goals, nor shown that he is capable of bringing in fresh troops to deal with the Ukraine counter-offensive. This would probably be a good time to launch it if Ukraine has the resources. It would probably pull the tired Wagner forces back into combat before they can reconstitute themselves.
See, also:
The General Staff published updated data on the losses of Russian invaders
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According to updated data, for the entire period of a full-scale war, as of 27 May, the estimated losses of the enemy were:
- 206,200 military personnel,
- 3,794 tanks,
- 7,449 armoured combat vehicles,
- 3,414/574 artillery systems/multiple-launch rocket systems,
- 329 air defence systems,
- 313/298 aircraft/helicopters,
- 2,990 operational-tactical UAVs,
- 1,056 cruise missiles,
- 18 ships/boats,
- 6,183 vehicles and tankers,
- 449 special vehicles.
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The immediate offensive began at night, the border guards said. To break through the Ukrainian defences, the Russians sent infantry into battle, supported by tanks and armoured vehicles.
At the firing line, Ukrainian artillery fire destroyed the invaders' equipment, including two tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle and one armoured personnel carrier.
The defenders killed the infantry of the aggressor country at close range using small arms and grenade launchers.
In total, the battle lasted about ten hours.
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And:
Russian military escaped with weapons near occupied Soledar, some of them were found
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"Seven former convicts, now servicemen of one of the units, have escaped from the military unit with weapons near Soledar. Three of them were detained in the area of Brianka on the territory of the 'LPR' [self-proclaimed and non-recognised formation in Luhansk Oblast – ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ – ed.]."
Details: The source has said that the men were in a cafe in Brianka and were drunk. Another deserter was shot dead by the escapees themselves because he wanted to surrender.
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And:
Ukrainians claim to have destroyed large Russian warship in Berdiansk
Ukrainian armed forces on Friday identified a large Russian landing ship that they said they destroyed at the port of Berdiansk in southern Ukraine the day before.
The port, which had recently been occupied by Russian forces with several Russian warships in dock, was rocked by a series of heavy explosions soon after dawn on Thursday.
Social media videos showed fires raging at the dockside, with a series of secondary explosions reverberating across the city.
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And:
Second attack on Russians in Berdiansk in one day, there are "a lot of killed"
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Berdiansk District Council confirmed the hit on the premises of the Khimik recreation centre, where Russian troops were deployed.
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Kinzhal is an air-launched ballistic missile with fins that allow it to maneuver as it approaches its target. It is called “hypersonic” since its top speed is reportedly around Mach 10, which would give it a range of somewhat over 1,000 km. This system is not, however, what defense analysts typically mean by the term “hypersonic weapon” since it is not designed to glide over a significant fraction of its trajectory. Its high speed and ability to maneuver, however, mean that it poses a similar challenge as true hypersonic weapons to terminal missile defenses, like Patriot, that are used to defend against weapons of this range.
A maneuvering missile traveling at Mach 10 would be too fast for the U.S. Patriot PAC-3 and similar defense systems to intercept reliably. However, Mach 10 is roughly Kinzhal’s maximum speed, and its speed drops sharply as it reenters and travels through the increasingly dense atmosphere to hit a target on the ground.
Patriot is designed to intercept missiles at low altitudes, and my estimates show that Kinzhal slows enough during its dive that current versions of PAC-3 should be capable of intercepting it. Moreover, reports indicate that at least for the first of the Kinzhal intercepts, Ukraine was not using the most advanced version of the PAC-3 (called MSE, which is 25 percent faster than the previous version).
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And:
Drone attack damages Russian oil pipeline facility hundreds of miles from Ukraine
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Ukraine pressuring Germany to provide long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow
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The Taurus missile can deliver a warhead weighing nearly half a tonne, roughly the same as the Storm Shadow, against a fortified target up to 310 miles away. Moscow lies 280 miles from the border with Ukraine.
Mattia Nelles, a German political scientist who advises German MPs on Ukraine, said that although Ukraine has promised not to strike targets inside Russia, this extra range worried Germany’s leadership.
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