Russia's futile attacks in Ukraine and China's futile peace efforts

 ISW:

...

Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike across Ukraine on May 25 and 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched ten Kh-101/555 air-based cruise missiles at Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and launched eight S-300/400 anti-aircraft guided missiles at Dnipro City.[16] Russian forces also reportedly launched 31 Shahed-131/136 drones from the southern and northern directions on the night of May 25 to 26. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed all ten Kh-101/555 missiles and 23 Shahed-131/136 drones.[17] The Kyiv Oblast Military Administration Head Ruslan Kravchenko stated that Russian forces have conducted 13 missile attacks on Kyiv Oblast since beginning of May.[18] Ukrainian sources reported that the Russian forces struck a civilian hospital and residential buildings in Dnipro in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[19]

The Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to Russia. The Kremlin claimed on May 26 that Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “the openness of the Russian side to dialogue on the political and diplomatic track, which is still blocked by Kyiv and its Western sponsors” in a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.[20] Putin’s statement does not indicate that Russia is interested in pursuing negotiations with Ukraine, and the Kremlin has not established any serious grounds for negotiations nor abandoned its maximalist goals to force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. The Kremlin is likely attempting to intensify its false claims about its readiness to negotiate with Ukraine amidst the arrival of the Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui in Moscow on May 26 to discuss a negotiated settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine.[21] The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Li previously urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates during his visit to European states in the past week.[22] The WSJ also reported that a (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat who spoke to Li explained that freezing the conflict was not beneficial to international interests and that Europe would not withdraw its support for Ukraine. The WSJ also reported that another (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat claimed that China’s main interests are ensuring Russian victory and ensuring that Russia does not use nuclear weapons. The claimed interaction likely indicates that China may be attempting to push the West to influence Ukraine into accepting a ceasefire. The Kremlin is likely amplifying its false interests in negotiations ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to discourage continued Western aid to Ukraine. ISW has previously reported on Russia’s peace negotiation information operations to deter Western support for Ukraine.[23]
...

Ukraine has no interest in accepting the current status quo in the war and neither does its supporters in the West.  Ukraine has mostly thwarted Russia's maximum objectives and is grinding down the Russian forces still on its territory. As long as the US and its allies are supplying materials for Ukraine's defense the chances for a negotiated end to the war are remote. For the West, the war has made Russia a much weaker conventional threat to NATO.  It is also possible that the current regime in Russia may also not survive its futile war efforts.

See, also:

The coming Russian revolution will unleash horrifying new demons

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s latest bombast against the Russian MOD and, by inference, the Kremlin itself, should not be seen as just another rant from a blowhard with a track record. His extraordinary threats of internal violence – “mobs with pitchforks” – and even revolution are a stark indicator of just how serious things are getting behind the scenes for Putin’s regime.

Prigozhin was predictably swift to claim credit for his Wagner forces in the capture of Bakhmut, but seemed to place greater emphasis on the cost. He claimed 20,000 of his own men had been killed, which is almost certainly a gross under-estimate, and to that we must add a very large number of Russian army troops. Given that possession of Bakhmut brings Russia no obvious strategic or even tactical gain, Prigozhin’s apocalyptic talk almost echoes the sentiments of King Pyrrhus of Epirus after he defeated the Romans at the Battle of Asculum, that “one other such victory would utterly undo him”.

Bakhmut stands as an allegory of the entire Russian war so far – inflicting huge damage at great cost and to no advantage. If it continues in this vein, Prigozhin’s vision of revolution is not impossible. He spoke of 1917, when soldiers and their families stood up against the Russian government. But you don’t need to go back that far to draw even closer parallels to what is happening today. The war in Afghanistan played a major role in the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.
...

And:

 Russian soldiers hiding in panic: Freedom of Russia Legion reveals video from Belgorod Oblast

...

" While being superior in numbers, acting on the territory they knew, the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces were panically hiding in landings and under fences. The video contains footage of the shelter of a motorised rifle company in abandoned residential buildings of local residents. "
...

And:

 Fires surge as Ukraine bombards Russian-held territory

Fires in Russian-held territory have increased fourfold since Britain’s delivery of Storm Shadow missiles, as Ukraine continues to set the stage for its much-anticipated counter-offensive.

Satellite data shows more than 900 war-related fires have occurred in Russian-held territory in Ukraine in the last two weeks, likely caused by missile strikes.
...

And:

 The Special Operations Forces soldiers defeated Russian invaders near Kreminna

And:

 Video captures powerful explosions in Russian Krasnodar during night attack on Ukraine

And:

 Putin ally says Ukraine war could last for decades - RIA agency

And:

 Drone Boat Attack On Russian Ship In Black Sea Story Keeps Getting Weirder

And:

 Putin’s Potemkin economy

Misleading or suppressed official figures make it hard to assess Russia’s wartime economic record but strains are evident

...

"Since the Ukrainian invasion, our data has shown that the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavourable metrics while releasing only those that are more favourable. . .  

" Putin is losing the military war, the diplomatic war and the economic war."

...