The significance of the Party ID parity

Neil Stevens:

We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.

It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.

Ignore Gallup’s headline. They’ve buried the lede so far deep, they’ll be fracking in Australia to bring it to the surface. Demographically the country hasn’t changed in a few years, naturally, but the difference between 2008 and 2012 is in the TEA party. The TEA party happened, dictated the 2010 elections, and has now resulted in a large partisan ID and registration shift in this country since.

When Rasmussen Reports noted this, and showed it in polling, Nate Silver and his followers scoffed. Just as they did in [2010] when Rasmussen was first to predict the TEA party driven Republican wave, they criticized and insulted the firm that was first to what turned out to be the facts.

Now Gallup is in the game, and the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, we’re in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.

That Gallup is giving us a range is not new. They did the same in 2010, when the late Generic Ballot polls offered two different voter models. First there was the high turnout model, one that proved too pessimistic for Republicans, and the low turnout model that was too optimistic. The truth was, as they surely intended, somewhere in the middle.

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Stevens believes the numbers suggest that Romney will get between 315 and 332 electoral votes.  My own guestimation has been in the 330 range.  The split is very close to what it was in 2010.  If the turnout is comparable, it will be a very good night for Republicans.  Most polls show independents breaking for Romney.