Inside the polling

John Hawkins:
...
The chances of Mitt Romney winning the early vote, independent voters by 8-10 points or more, having a higher favorability rating than Obama and winning the swing states by four or more points and losing the election has to be very close to zero. In fact, going by those numbers, Mitt Romney should win just as handily as Barack Obama won in 2008 — and make no mistake about it, people were very aware that Barack Obama was going to beat McCain in 2008.
...
He attempts to explain the apparent closeness of the race by suggesting a polling market bubble on the party identification issue.  When you look at the generic congressional ballot, they show the Republicans even or with a slight advantage.  If that is the case and with independents breaking strongly for Romney it should forecast a strong win and not a close election.  In fact that is what happened in 2010 when the party ID were dead even.

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