Iraq attacks

The random violence by some Iraqis that has resulted in the death of US troops is not militrily significant. It could not at this time be called guerilla war. (Guerilla is French for small. A guerilla war usually implies a raiding strategy.) To be militarily significant, the attacks would have to be coordinated with an objective other than random acts of killing.

The people involved in the attacks have a significant problem in coordinating attacks, and an even greater problem in massing forces to take and seize an objective. Attempts to coordinate and communicate leave them vulnerable to discovery by the US forces. Attempts to mass forces for an attack also makes them vulnerable to discovery.

Until the attackers are destroyed, the US will need more troops on the ground and increase their force to space ration in cities where the attackers are operating. The US should also increase Predator drone trafic in areas where attacks are occuring. In dangerous parts of town, video monitors should be installed as a technical way of increasing the force to space ratio.

In all such attacks, the attacker has to have a planned escape route. In areas where attacks are occuring, US forces need to anticipate escape routes and have blocking forces on call.

To the extent the people involved in these atacks have a strategy, it is a weak varient of the Mogudisho strategy, of blooding US forces so that they will leave. These guys cannot even manage a good riot.

The foreign fighters who are responsible for the attacks are actually doing the US and its arab allies a favor by congregating in Iraq where they can be destroyed by the US. If they had stayed home it is unlikely that the US would have had a shot at them and they would only have been making trouble for their home government. As one general said during the combat phase of the war, it is like bugs heading for the bug zapper.

It will be interesting to see haw long they can sustain themselves in Iraq where the US can squeeze their revenue source and their freedom of movement. If Saddam is found they may very well collapse. Finding Saddam will also loosen tongues on the whereabouts of WMD.


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