Russians have stronger reaction to death of blogger than to that of troops?
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Russian authorities are blaming Ukrainian government entities and Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny for the April 2 assassination of Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin, also known as Vladlen Tartarsky. The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee claimed that Ukrainian special services collaborated with the Anti-Corruption Fund, which Navalny founded in 2011, to plan the attack against Fomin.[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the Ukrainian government may be behind Fomin’s death and claimed that Ukraine has killed others since 2014, such as Daria Dugina, which Peskov spuriously used as justification for the “special military operation.”[5] The Russian Investigative Committee reclassified the case as a terrorist attack and claimed that it was planned in Ukrainian territory.[6] The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) confirmed that the sculpture handed to Fomin prior to his death contained hidden explosives.[7] The Russian Investigative Committee confirmed on April 3 that Russian authorities detained Daria Trepova in a St. Petersburg apartment on suspicion of the attack.[8] Authorities released an excerpt of their interrogation of Trepova, in which Trepova stated that authorities questioned her about giving a sculpture to Fomin, but she did not answer on camera whether she knew the sculpture contained explosives.[9] The range of various official responses is notably disjointed, with a lack of consensus among official Russian sources regarding Trepova’s involvement or association with either Ukrainian special services or Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Fund.
Official Russian responses to Fomin’s death failed to generate a single narrative in the information space and led to disjointed responses from prominent pro-war voices. Several prominent milbloggers and news aggregators fixated on the reported investigation into Daria Trepova and analyzing footage of the lead-up to and aftermath of the explosion.[10] Other milbloggers claimed that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian special services and amplified news of the investigation without offering additional commentary into the situation.[11] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia posted a simple message mourning Fomin without engaging with the Kremlin's informational response.[12] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that unspecified attackers targeted Fomin because he listened to both the Russian and Ukrainian perspectives, had over 500,000 Telegram subscribers, and effectively organized donation drives for Russian forces.[13] Russian Orthodox Church head Patriarch Kirill connected Fomin’s murder to the ongoing conflict over the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, despite no obvious connection between the two incidents.[14]
As Russian officials try to galvanize an official narrative around the National Anti-Terrorism Committee’s investigation, Russian milbloggers will likely increasingly criticize the results and conclusions of the investigation, and Fomin’s death is likely to become a major point of information space neuralgia. One Russian milblogger and political analyst overtly criticized the official Russian response to Fomin’s death and noted that Russian officials have likely predetermined the final findings of the investigation.[15] The absence of a coherent narrative in the pro-Russian information space is reminiscent of responses to Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive in fall 2022, when the Kremlin’s propaganda machine initially failed to define a rhetorical line to respond to massive Ukrainian gains and caused an information space breakdown that manifested in disjointed responses across the entire pro-war community.[16]
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I suspect the death of a prominent war supporter deep inside Russia may have rattled Putin and his supporters. The milblogger community may also fear that they might be targeted. The investigation is likely to focus on how Trepova came to have the statue with the bomb inside.
ISW is also reporting that Russians "continue to confiscate the passports of senior officials and state company executives to limit flight from Russia." This suggests people who can afford it still want to flee Russia. That suggests to me that there could be a lack of support for the war inside Russia.
See, also:
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In a YouTube manifesto, reported on by the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda, Girkin said on Sunday that the situation on the frontline has an "extremely negative" impact on the Russia's ability to win the war.
"I'm not afraid to say that we are heading towards military defeat," Girkin said, adding that the Russian economy, military, and political system were unprepared for such a "long, protracted war."
He claimed that the Russian media "glosses over" the war's detrimental effects on the country.
It follows comments by chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley last week in which he said Russians are "struggling in a big way," with the country's army failing to make any military progress in the past three weeks and its forces being undertrained.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Russia's economy is also struggling, evidenced by a budget squeeze, a decrease in investment, and predictions that the economy is entering long-term regression.
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And:
Putin will soon face his Julius Caesar moment in the Kremlin
As the Russian military leadership continues to flounder in the field, it is now crystal clear that, in invading Ukraine, they were totally unaware of the strategic intentions of the Kremlin. A massive deception by their political leaders was pulled over the eyes of the young Russian soldiers who believed they were entering the country as liberators. No wonder the UK Ministry of Defence now reports issues with heavy drinking among them.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has become a victim of his own hubris. He firmly believed his security services had infiltrated and undermined the Kyiv government; that a majority of the Ukrainian population were opposed to President Zelensky and favoured better links with Russia; and that his military was fit, capable and ready to mount a quick strike on Kyiv to effect regime change. Now, however, the prospect of defeat on the battlefield is becoming ever more likely and Putin’s grip on power ever more tenuous.
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And:
Russian economy sliding towards deindustrialization, Finland says
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Many businesses had to adjust to using lower quality components or spending more money. Russian financial markets and many sectors of the real economy must now operate without foreign partners. Some companies are switching from high-tech to low-tech production chains.
Sanctions against the Russian oil sector are in full force. It is expected that exports will no longer be able to support GDP growth. In addition, as the war drags on, government spending and investment will rise. The budget deficit in 2023 will be much higher than the current official forecast of 2% of GDP. This year Russia expects a deepening economic recession.
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Developed Western economies, which Russia calls "unfriendly", make up more than 50% of the world economy and account for an even larger share of global research and innovation activity. As of the end of 2021, more than 90% of Russian FDI came from “unfriendly countries.” The severing of these ties is a huge shock and drag on Russia's growth potential.
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Russian army grows weaker and covers up failures with fakes about capturing Bakhmut
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In an update published Monday, the UK Ministry of Defence said the once celebrated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet had been rendered "combat ineffective" multiple times when fighting in Ukraine.
It said the Kremlin was doing its best to cover up its defeats, to prevent the 155th becoming a symbol of Russia's larger failures in the invasion.
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Washington expects Ukraine to launch counteroffensive ‘in coming weeks’
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Satellite images show dozens of Russian trenches built across Crimea: report
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Commander of Ukraine's Defence Forces explains what to use to down Shahed drones
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