Russia's degraded positions will have to deal with Ukraine offensive

 ISW:

This report is based on a number of assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities that ISW does not, as a matter of policy, attempt to assess or report on. It assumes, in particular, that Ukraine will be able to conduct a coordinated multi-brigade mechanized offensive operation making full use of the reported nine brigades being prepared for that operation. That task is daunting and larger than any offensive effort Ukraine has hitherto attempted (four Ukrainian brigades were reportedly used in the Kharkiv counter-offensive, for example). It also assumes that Ukraine will have integrated enough tanks and armored personnel carriers of various sorts into its units to support extended mechanized maneuver, that Ukrainian mechanized units will have sufficient ammunition of all sorts including artillery, and that Ukraine will be able to conduct long-range precision strikes with HIMARS and other similar systems integrated with and supporting maneuver operations as it has done before. It further assumes that Ukrainian forces will have the mine-clearing and bridging capabilities needed to move relatively rapidly through prepared defensive positions. ISW sees no reason to question any of these assumptions given the intensity with which Ukraine has reportedly been preparing for this operation and the time it has taken to do so, as well as the equipment reportedly delivered to Ukrainian forces by Western countries. If any significant number of these assumptions prove invalid, however, then some of the assessments and observations below will also be invalid, and the Russians’ prospects for holding their lines will be better than presented below. ISW offers no assessment of or evidence for these assumptions, and thus offers no specific forecast for the nature, scale, location, duration, or outcome of the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukraine has attractive options for offensive operations all along the line, and ISW does not assess that the information presented in this report or any observations ISW has made below lead obviously to the conclusion that Ukrainian forces will attack in one area or another.

Russian forces in Ukraine are operating in decentralized and largely degraded formations throughout the theater, and the current pattern of deployment suggests that most available units are already online and engaged in either offensive or defensive operations. ISW assesses that Russian forces are currently operating along seven axes: Kupyansk; Luhansk Oblast; Bakhmut; Avdiivka-Donetsk City; western Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhia; western Zaporizhia; and Kherson Oblast. Russian forces are pursuing active offensive operations on at least five of these axes (Kupyansk, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka-Donetsk City, and western Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhia) and predominantly pursuing defensive operations on the western Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast axes. The forces currently committed to both offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine are both regular (doctrinally consistent based on Russian pre-war units) and irregular (non-standard and non-doctrinal) forces, and it is highly likely that the majority of Russian elements throughout Ukraine are substantially below full strength due to losses taken during previous phases of the war. This report will discuss “elements” of certain units and formations deployed to certain areas, but it should not be assumed that any of these units or formations are operating at full strength.
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There is much more in a long report to cover Russian positions over several axes, where they have mostly been fighting with significant casualties.  I suspect that some of the more aware commanders in the Russian military have been trying to get Putin to allow them to dig in and go over to the defensive in anticipation of a Ukraine offensive, and to date, it looks like Putin has resisted that advice.

See, also:

Russians suffer heavy losses on Avdiivka front – General Staff report

Russian forces have unsuccessfully tried to advance on the Avdiivka front, suffering heavy losses. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have repelled numerous attacks in the northern and central parts of Marinka.
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The Russian forces focus their main efforts on conducting offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts. About 45 attacks were repelled in these areas by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fiercest battles continue for the cities of Bakhmut and Marinka.
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And:

 Russian warns G-7 'idiots'; Russian mercenaries to stop taking POWs, 'kill everyone on battlefield': Updates

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The G-7 countries – the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan – are considering a near-total ban on exports to Russia, media outlets in multiple countries reported last week. Russia has for months threatened to halt the grain deal now set to expire next month.

“This idea from the idiots at the G7 about a total ban of exports to our country by default is beautiful in that it implies a reciprocal ban on imports from our country,” former Russian president and current deputy of its security council Dmitry Medvedev said in a post on his Telegram channel, adding “In such a case, the grain deal – and many other things that they need – will end for them."
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And:

 Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro river, implying Russia's defensive positions are weakening, report says

And:

 Russian military leadership wants to switch to defence, but cannot convince Putin

And:

 Russian soldiers beg for help as own army throws them into pit

Russian deserters are being imprisoned by their own army in medieval-style pits with metal grilles on top.

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And:

 Soldiers in Ukraine report using everything from nearby dead animals, fiberglass rods, and ropes and hooks to identify and detonate Russian land mines

And:

 ‘They’ll kill me if I come back’: Abduction, torture become routine in Russian-occupied Melitopol

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“If they don’t like someone, they just take this person into a car and abduct them,” she said. “Your relatives will never know what happened to you.”

The Russian soldiers took her to a small, disgusting cell in a former pre-trial detention center in Melitopol for a “talk,” as they put it.

“One was asking the questions, and the other beat me,” she recalled. She was beaten whenever her answers didn’t suit the interrogators or when she replied in Ukrainian.

“They threatened to break my nose, beat me on the floor, and hand me over to the Chechen soldiers for ’entertainment,” she said.
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And:

 Ukrainian troop positions spark counteroffensive speculation

And:

 Ukraine is aiming to launch a 'big bang' style counter-offensive in order to break stalemated war, says military expert

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"Ukraine could kill every Russian soldier within 200 miles of Bakhmut, and it wouldn't change the strategic situation," Hodges told The Sun. He said a push to recapture Crimea was the "decisive terrain" in the conflict.

Crimea was invaded and illegally annexed by Putin's regime in 2014.

"Ukraine knows that it will never be safe without taking back Crimea," Hodges told the news outlet.