Democracy dying in Russia

 Telegraph:

The last vestiges of democracy in Russia are burning in the fields of the Donbas. Young men are being sent to the slaughter, their post-war tanks proving no match for modern Western kit or the motivation of Ukrainian soldiers defending their homes. Putin knows his only hope of victory – and of prolonging his tenure as the last great Tsar – is the total militarisation of Russia. This is an outcome that suits him well.

Moscow’s descent into a military dictatorship is now happening alarmingly fast. Putin’s United Russia party is promoting veterans of his war in Ukraine as candidates in regional elections, with the party’s secretary general ordered to give them his “full support”. The Kremlin’s rhetoric frequently invokes the “Great Patriotic War” against Nazi Germany, either directly or through the insinuation that Russia once again stands against fascism and Nazism.

This militarisation of his dictatorship is a sure sign that the ice is cracking around his citadel. The dalliance with democracy after the end of the Cold War has not sat well with the ex-KGB autocrat, who craves power and control. Putin knows that Stalin and his close allies ruled with an iron fist, and that the removal of dissenters and those with democratic leanings kept them in power. It is this model that he is now turning to.

Nobody I know with a hint of an intelligence background believes Putin travelled to the frontline this week; he rarely leaves the inner sanctum of the Kremlin. He can now only control Russia with his trusted military lieutenants meting out reverence to the ‘Supreme Leader”, and whispers suggest that illness or sudden treachery may see him leave the political picture far faster than he would like. In this state, paranoia and a desire for ever greater control are unsurprising.

The jailing of opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza this week is tragic but unsurprising. It removes a key dissenter for the rest of Putin’s days on this planet, and fits in with the pattern of attacks on the slightest signs of dissent, including the poisonings of Alexei Navalny and Sergei Skripal. It takes a great deal of personal bravery to express anything other than total obedience when dissenters seem to find themselves poisoned, jailed, or tumbling from balconies.

But even as the Russian autocrat attempts to tighten his grip on power, the end is visible. As dictators have found across history, militarisation of the state tends to end badly. The only way Putin can win in Ukraine is by prolonging it, until the less staunch Western countries begin to waver in their resolve. And the only way he can do this is by throwing Russian men at the Ukrainian gunlines until they run out of ammunition.

This grotesque mockery of strategy is his last roll of the dice. It has proved successful, in a way, in Bakhmut, but has also taken a dreadful toll. The only way it can continue is if Russia is run as a military state. No dissension, no dispute. There are credible reports that the Kremlin has identified some four million souls across Russia who it believes will not be missed. The intellectually disabled, the homeless, the addicts, those in remote communities; give them a day’s training and throw them into the maelstrom. These sources also suggest their life expectancy is only 7 days on the frontline.
...

It takes a tyrant like Putin to launch a war this ill-advised.  Ukraine was never a threat to Russia and Putin's war has led to a further expansion of NATO, something he claimed was his reason for attacking Ukraine.

See, also:

US looking forward to Sweden becoming NATO member before July summit: Austin

...

Along with Finland, Sweden applied to join NATO in May last year. Finland's application was processed in record time and it became the 31st member of the alliance earlier this month.

Sweden's accession has been held up by Turkey and Hungary, who have yet to ratify Sweden as a member.

"We look forward to soon welcoming Sweden as the 32nd (member of NATO). To be clear, we look forward to that to happen before the summit in July," Austin told a news conference.

"We encourage our allies, Turkey and Hungary, to ratify Sweden's accession as soon as possible."
...

And:

 Medvedev threatens Russia will arm North Korea if South Korea supplies arms to Ukraine

This is an interesting threat since Russia has actually been buying weapons from North Korea to use in Ukraine.  The NORKs have been a source of artillery ammo that the Russians have run short of.

And:

 A Ukrainian drone commander said Russian troops would sit around and get shot at the start of the war, but have learned from their mistakes

...

The early months of the war revealed severe flaws in Moscow's wartime strategy, Western observers have said. Between February and July 2022, Russia lacked competent junior leaders on the ground who could command their units effectively, the Royal United Services Institute, a UK defense think-tank, wrote in November. Their combat formations and targeting systems meant Russian troops were often vulnerable to friendly fire, the think tank added.

Between 60,000 to 80,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the war's first months, the US estimated in July.

Russia also likely lost around half of its main battle tanks deployed in Ukraine, the Pentagon said in November.

As Moscow's losses mounted, the Kremlin began sending poorly trained draftees to the frontlines as replacements, exacerbating the death toll. One US official in January noted that Russia appears to be sticking to this failed strategy.
...

And:

 Russian mercenaries detail killing men, women and children in Ukraine

A video posted by a Russian NGO contains confessions of two former prisoners recruited to serve in Russia’s brutal mercenary corps.

And ISW reports elements of the Ukraine offensive may be underway: 

...

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on April 19 that Ukrainian forces are already conducting some counteroffensive actions. Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces will never preemptively announce when the counteroffensive starts and reiterated that Ukrainian forces aim to liberate all Ukrainian territory.[5] Malyar also reported that Russian forces are concentrating on offensives in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka directions and that Russian forces have concentrated weapons, equipment, and all professional units – including Wagner Group forces, Spetsnaz, and airborne forces (VDV) – around Bakhmut.[6] Malyar noted that Ukrainian counteroffensive actions will be both offensive and defensive in nature given the complex nature of the battlefield.
...