Putin unlikely to negotiate in the face of losses in Ukraine, Artillery ammo favors Ukraine now

 ISW:

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. The New York Times (NYT) reported on April 24 that a senior European official stated that the chances of Putin “backing down” in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive are “less than zero.”[1] The official stated that Putin would likely mobilize more soldiers to fight in Ukraine. US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said that there is “very little evidence” to suggest that Putin would alter his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine “politically, if not fully militarily.” US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told Voice of America on April 25 that the US is increasing security assistance to Ukraine because the US expects that Russia will attempt to go on the offensive as the weather improves.[2]

A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving “impressive results” in counter-battery combat against Russian forces on the Russian-occupied eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[3] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Operational Forces Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces hit and destroyed Russian artillery systems, tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems. Humenyuk added that Ukrainian forces are working to clear the frontline on the east bank in a “counter-battery mode.” Humenyuk added that Russian forces are evacuating civilians from the Dnipro River bank area to move in Russian units, which is simplifying Ukrainian operations.
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I suspect that Putin would have difficulty surviving and admission that his war n Ukraine was a mistake.  To date, his response to losses in Ukraine has been to try to mobilize more troops and throw them into a meat grinder in the face of losses.  His resistance to advice to go over to the defensive also suggests that is a move he sees as a political problem as well as a military problem.

The fact that Ukraine is getting "impressive results" in counter-battery fire suggests that Ukraine now has enough ammo to launch its offensive. 

See, also:

Ukraine receives 98% of weapons needed for counteroffensive, US general says

Cavoli stated that Ukraine and its Western allies calculated how much equipment Kyiv would require for the counteroffensive, after which Ukraine's partners began supplying it. The general said that over 98% of the promised combat vehicles had already arrived in Ukraine, and also acknowledged the "generosity" of allies in supplying tanks and armored combat vehicles.

Read also: Poland to provide Ukraine with more heavy military equipment

"I am absolutely confident that we have delivered the material they need, and we will continue to work to support their operations," said Cavoli.

According to Cavoli, the results of simulated wargames, conducted jointly with the Ukrainians, indicate that Kyiv’s forces are "in a good position" for a successful counteroffensive against Russian troops occupying Ukrainian territory.
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And:

 ‘We will not lag behind in strike UAVs’ – Ukraine AF confirms successful UAV strikes against Russia

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  Military expert explains growing number of drone explosions in Russia

“We have information from the Russian media, which started shouting feverishly that there was an attack by drones and they killed everyone. We are very cautious about commenting on such things that happen in Russia and in Ukrainian Crimea. Because silence is silence. It must be maintained in order not to harm the actions that are taking place today, including in the south of our country.”

Read also: Ukrainian UAV destroys enemy position set up on high-rise building’s roof – video

He noted that surface drones that move over the waves are not easy to detect and destroy.
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And:

 Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces names main reasons for holding Bakhmut

Control over Bakhmut prevents the Russian forces from advancing to the flanks and rear of the Ukrainian defence forces on the Lysychansk and Donetsk fronts.
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And:

 Watch: Russian soldiers use special ponchos to hide from drones

Russian troops are attempting to disguise themselves with “anti-thermal blankets” in a bid to evade detection by Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donetsk region.

The metallic-lined ponchos are mainly being used by sniper and sabotage units to thwart thermal imaging cameras and reconnaissance drones, according to Ukrainian troops stationed in the area.
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And:

 Russian troops digging trenches in Ukraine reportedly infected with anthrax

Russian troops were reportedly infected with anthrax after unearthing a burial site for cattle while digging defensive trenches in southern Ukraine.
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And:

 Russia's Lavrov warns EU becoming militarized now, like NATO

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He was apparently referring to a Jan. 19 EU-NATO declaration on their “strategic partnership” which calls Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine “the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades.”
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Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine has led most of Europe to go on the defensive.

And:

 Russia's seizure of two foreign firms' assets is a warning shot to the West

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Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree late Tuesday (April 24) that lets the Kremlin introduce “temporary” state control over the assets of companies or individuals from “unfriendly” states, including the the US and its allies, which make or threaten to make similar moves.
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Many western companies have already pulled out of Russia.