Putin signs decree for ethnic cleansing in occupied territories

 ISW:

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Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on April 27 codifying conditions for the further large-scale deportation to Russia of residents of occupied areas of Ukraine. Putin signed a decree entitled “On the Peculiarities of the Legal Status of Certain Categories of Foreign Citizens and Stateless Persons in the Russian Federation” that defines those who are living in Russian-occupied territories who have declared their desire to retain their current citizenship and refuse to accept Russian passports as “foreign citizens and stateless persons currently residing in the Russian Federation.”[8] The decree holds that such individuals may continue to reside in occupied territories until July 1, 2024, suggesting that these individuals may be subject to deportation following this date.[9] This decree codifies coercive methods to encourage residents of occupied areas to receive Russian passports and also sets conditions for the deportation of Ukrainians who do not agree to become Russian citizens. Russian authorities are also continuing other efforts to deport Ukrainians, particularly children, to Russia under various schemes.[10] ISW continues to assess that all lines of effort aimed at deporting Ukrainians to Russia may constitute a violation of the Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, as well as a potential deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu promoted the Kremlin’s efforts to form a potential anti-Western coalition during a meeting of the defense ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states in New Delhi, India. Shoigu stated on April 28 that the SCO meeting occurred against the backdrop of the establishment of a new multipolar world order, which the collective West is actively opposing.[11] Shoigu argued that the US and its allies are provoking conflicts with Russia and China and that the West is attempting to defeat Russia and threaten China through the war in Ukraine.[12] Shoigu invited SCO member states to participate in the 11th Moscow Conference of International Security and called on the SCO to develop a framework for exchanging military information, cooperation in joint military exercises, and the development of partnerships between the SCO and Russian-favored multilateral organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).[13]

The Kremlin has previously identified multilateral organizations without significant Western participation as its preferred bodies for international decision making and will likely continue to use such bodies to promote Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West.[14] ISW assessed that Putin tried to use Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow from March 20 to 22 to promote the idea of an anti-Western Russian-Chinese-based geopolitical bloc, but that Xi rebuffed Putin’s rhetorical overtures.[15] The Kremlin is likely aware that the attractiveness of such a bloc lies more with China’s economic and political power than with Russia's increasingly isolated economy and degraded military capacity, which is why it likely chose the Chinese-favored SCO to promote the idea of a potential anti-Western coalition. The Kremlin is also likely attempting to secure through multilateral engagement with China desired benefits of a Chinese-Russian bilateral relationship that Putin was unable to obtain in his meeting with Xi. The Kremlin’s attempts to use the SCO to support these efforts are unlikely to be more successful than its previous efforts to rally the rest of the world against the West and convince China that Russia is a reliable and equal security partner.
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Putin's attempt to deport children to Russia has already gotten him in trouble and doing that with others in the Russian-controlled territories will also lead to more problems.  I suspect his efforts may also be related to the attacks on Russian troops and facilities by Ukraine operatives in the Russian-controlled cities and territories.  These attacks in the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine are probably also a blow to his pride.

I think Russia's attempt to get India to and China on its side will also fail.  India has a large English-speaking population many of which have come to the US and have been extremely successful. Both India's and China's economies need to trade with the West more than they need to trade with 
Russia.  Xi may eventually have to make a change if he attacks Taiwan, but for now, he is not ready for that break.

See, also:

Putin’s personal reactions to bad news might cause him to order missile strikes on Ukraine, says political scientist

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Koshel said Russia might launch missile terror attacks on Ukrainian cities depending on the Russian dictator’s mood and his reaction to the latest events in the news.

“(It may depend on) the mood of the Russian Führer, ... how much he is offended by a certain publication, by some actions, by many other things,” the political scientist said.

“In fact, many things can throw him off balance. Let’s recall the events of recent days: (a drone) fell outside St. Petersburg, (a drone) fell outside Moscow... These are factors I always take into account, and they seem important to me.”

“(That’s) because they show that the Russian authorities are trying to demonstrate such monolithicity, pragmatism, but in reality, they may depend on the fact that some person woke up in the morning, bumps on the table and makes a decision by his own under the influence of emotional factors. This is quite important for us to understand the enemy’s logic and be able to predict it.”
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And:

 Ukraine's National Guard downs Russian "invisible" drone

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As the press office of the National Guard of Ukraine specified in the interview with Ukrainska Pravda, the National Guard soldiers destroyed a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle on 25 April. The drone fell on the field full of landmines.

The National Guard soldiers checked whether the area where the device fell was under fire control of Russian forces, demined the passage and retrieved the drone on 27 April.

Then, the device was handed over to specialists for technical and informational analysis.
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And:

 Management of Russian state companies in Crimea told to evacuate, Kyiv says

"This information comes from both (Russian) state banks and the Crimean (branch of Russia’s) Railway, which indicates comprehensive preparation measures (are being taken)," the statement said.

Read also: Occupiers ramp up efforts in search of guerrillas in occupied Crimea – NRC

As clarified by the NRC, local top managers and their families are the ones expected to be evacuated.
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And:

 Armed with tanks and heavy armor from NATO, Ukraine says it's about to hit Russian forces with an 'iron fist'

Ukraine's forces are nearly ready to launch a counteroffensive against the Russian invaders with weapons from the West, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday.

"As soon as there is God's will, the weather and a decision by commanders, we will do it," Reznikov said during an online briefing, per Reuters. "We are to a high percentage ready."
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US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top commander of US forces in Europe and NATO's top general, told congressional lawmakers during a House Armed Services committee hearing on Wednesday he is "very confident" that Ukraine has what it needs for a successful counteroffensive. "We'll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well," he said. The M1 Abrams tanks promised by the US are still to come.

Though Cavoli expressed confidence, recently leaked top secret Pentagon documents that became a major point of controversy in Washington and abroad suggested that the US is not especially optimistic that Ukraine can actually make major gains in a counteroffensive.
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And:

 Russians seem to be baiting US jets to dogfight in Syria, general says

Russian pilots have begun buzzing American fighter jets over Syria in apparent invitations to dogfight, according to the three-star general in charge of U.S. air operations in the Middle East.

It’s the latest example of Russian troops growing increasingly confrontational toward the U.S. and its allies as they cross paths over war zones and in shared airspace around the world.

Russian airmen are “increasingly bellicose” in their approach and “aggressively maneuvering, almost like they’re trying to dogfight,” Air Forces Central Command boss Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich told the publication Defense One. “Our protocols would say we’re supposed to stay … several miles apart and just monitor each other.”

He cautioned American airmen not to engage.

“We’re not going to act like they are,” Grynkewich told Defense One. “We’re going to act in a professional manner, and we’re going to try to de-escalate the situation.”
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These maneuvers follow the downing of a US drone by Russia over the Black Sea.  During the Trump administration, there was an attack on US forces in Syria by Russia that resulted in a counterattack where Putin quickly backed down.