China's strategic threat to the Philippines

 ISW:

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The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shandong aircraft carrier strike group conducted exercises in the Philippine Sea from April 13 to April 24, likely to maintain operational readiness and demonstrate the ability to isolate the Philippines during Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s visit. The exercises were a continuation of the carrier strike group’s activity in early April closer to Taiwan in the response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen meeting with Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. The carrier strike group was comprised of the Shandong, a Renhai-class destroyer, two Luyang III-class destroyers, two Jiangkai II-class frigate, and a Fuyu-class support ship.[9] This is the first time the Shandong conducted exercises in the Philippine Sea since commissioning in December 2019.[10] The ROC Ministry of National Defense (MND) subsequently detected the group on its return voyage 120 nautical miles southeast of Taiwan.[11] The ROC MND reportedly mobilized unspecified forces onto Taiwan’s southernmost peninsula in response to the carrier’s return voyage.[12] PLA carrier strike groups in the Philippine Sea demonstrate Chinese intent and capability to interdict US forces and supplies aimed for American partner nations such as Taiwan or the Philippines in crisis scenarios.

This naval activity coincided with Qin Gang’s meetings with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo on April 22 to convey Chinese displeasure at Filipino security cooperation with the United States. Manalo reassured Qin in his meeting that the Philippines “pursues an independent foreign policy” to assuage concerns of closer US-Philippine military relations in light of the United States’ expanded Philippine military base access.[13] China seeks to limit the US military’s access in the Philippines to contain American operational capabilities in the region.
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China likely wants to isolate the Philippines to thwart the US efforts to defend Taiwan from Chicom aggression. While China has been increasing its navy to one larger than that of the US, it is not clear that it has the operational ability to dominate US naval operations in the Pacific.

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