Russia experiencing more resistance from troops
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Significant numbers of Russian mobilized soldiers and their loved ones continue to publicize complaints that Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders treat them poorly and use them as expendable manpower to patch holes in combat formations.[31] Formations from at least 17 Russian federal subjects have released video complaints appealing to various Russian leaders in February and March alone.[32] The increasing rate of public complaints about commanders, lack of equipment, and unit structure — despite ongoing censorship and punishment of scapegoats — indicate that many soldiers feel the threat of war and their present conditions are more hazardous than the consequences of speaking out.
The Ural regional branch of a Russian state-owned news agency claimed on March 10 that Russia is preparing a large-scale recruitment campaign set to launch April 1 aimed at bringing in about 400,000 new contract soldiers. Federal subject governors reportedly have begun preparations for the coming campaign.[33] It is extremely unlikely that Russian recruitment efforts could succeed in recruiting a significant number of soldiers, much less the very high target of recruiting 400,000 soldiers.
Russian authorities continue to struggle to crack down on desertion and resistance to forcible extension of military contracts. A Russian regional news source reported on March 10 that a military court in Moscow will try eight mobilized soldiers from Kaliningrad Oblast for desertion, a charge that reportedly carries a prison term of up to 15 years.[34] A Russian news outlet stated on March 10 that volunteers from Tatarstan with expired contracts are attempting to return home but face criminal prosecution under desertion articles.[35] A Russian opposition exposé source on March 10 amplified a written complaint from military unit 24314, currently located in Rostov Oblast, addressed to Russia’s Southern Military District military prosecutor wherein soldiers complained that their commanders prevent them from leaving, call them deserters, and threaten attritional deployments for attempting to leave once their contracts expire.[36]
Russian authorities continue to prosecute limited domestic resistance to mobilization and the war in Ukraine. A Russian opposition exposé source claimed on March 10 that Russian authorities detained and obtained a confession from a 22-year-old Bashkir resident suspected of committing an arson attack that set fire to a relay cabinet on a stretch of a railway line connecting Sibay and Almukhametovo, Bashkortostan.[37] A Russian opposition source stated on March 10 that a Makhachkala, Dagestan district court on February 10 sentenced a man to 1.5 years in prison for nonviolently protesting mobilization.[38] Russian opposition news source Dozhd reported on March 10 that a Petrozavodsk, Karelia Republic court sentenced the vice chairman of youth activist organization “The Civil Alliance of Russia” for allegedly attempting to sabotage a railway in Petrozavodsk.[39]
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This is likely to lead to increased resistance to recruitment efforts making it harder to fill the ranks It is remarkable for a society with such internal controls to see this kind of resistance. Putin is also getting some pushback from within the government as the casualties mount and the political situation in the country deteriorates. The harsh punishments are beginning to be seen as better than the death sentences of the trenches and human wave attacks.
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Russia is running out of prepared stocks of weapons, NSDC chief says
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US, allies scramble to meet Ukraine's need for ammunition ahead of Russian offensive
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As much of the war has shifted to major artillery battles in the eastern part of the country and Ukraine burns through rounds at a high rate, the U.S. and allies have had to significantly boost production of critical ammunition.
But a key question is whether enough can be produced and delivered in time.
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Last month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stolenberg said, "The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of ammunition and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain. For example, the waiting time for large caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months."
Last week, Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told his E.U. counterparts, in a letter obtained by the Financial Times, that Kyiv needed 250,000 artillery shells a month. He also said that his forces were firing only about a fifth of the rounds he said they would ordinarily use.
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U.S. Army officials and manufacturing companies in the U.S say they are confident they can meet Ukraine's needs, despite it blowing through U.S supplies much faster than expected.
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Currently, a munitions plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, has increased its production of artillery shells from 15,000 to 70,000 shells a month.
And Lockheed Martin, which makes the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, is doubling its production of the launchers from 48 to 96 per year, executives say.
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Firing anti-ship missiles at ground targets is a chaotic strategy Russia may regret, expert says
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Russia used a mixture of weapons for its deadly strike, including the Kh-22: an old, Soviet-style missile designed not to demolish buildings, but to sink and destroy aircraft-carrier groups at sea.
Yurii Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military, said Thursday the attack was "really large-scale" and the first time he's seen Russia "using such different types of missiles," CNN reported.
He said the Ukrainian military has "no capabilities to counter " weapons like the the Kh-22s, because it is wildly unpredictable and inaccurate when used against land targets.
The Kh-22, which has a 2,000-pound warhead, was also used in January when Russia blew up an apartment complex in central Ukraine, killing at least 40 people and injuring 80 more.
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Poland builds Europe’s largest land force to counter Russian threat
Christmas came early for Captain Marek Adamiak and the troops of Poland's 11th Artillery Regiment.
Stationed not far from the Russian border, his unit has long grappled with outdated kit.
But in mid-December they received 24 South-Korean made K9 self-propelled howitzers that can hit targets up to 34 miles away, bringing new and deadly capabilities to the regiment.
“As an artillery officer I’m excited by the new equipment,” Captain Adamiak told The Telegraph. “We can manoeuvre better, we can shoot from anywhere. There is no place we can’t shoot from. We had a lot of old artillery but now we have very new weapons."
Given the war happening in neighbouring Ukraine, it's given them the confidence that if conflict came to their doorstep, they would now have the weapons to fight back. "We can see from the way Ukrainians use artillery that they need to be very fast: into action, fire and move on," he said.
The 24 guns now in his regiment’s care are just the tip of a massive defence spending programme by Poland.
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To start with, it has placed orders for 1,000 K2 main battle tanks from South Korea, and 250 brand new M1A2 SEPv3 Abram tanks from the US. This will turn Poland into the owner of Europe’s biggest tank force, dwarfing the UK’s fleet of 227.
Its artillery will be bolstered by the arrival of 600 K9s, 18 HIMARS launchers with 9,000 rockets, and 288 K239 Chunmoo MRL systems from South Korea.
Over 1,000 Polish-made Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles will carry Polish troops into battle, while air cover will come from 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters bought from the US, and 48 FA-50 combat aircraft now on order from South Korea.
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