Putin's unrealistic goals and grasp of Russian history

 ISW:

...

Putin is instead doubling down on his commitment to overpower Ukraine militarily and/or protract the war by mobilizing Russia’s defense industrial base and renewing various crypto-mobilization schemes to generate renewed combat power. Putin’s March 25 speech continued a months-long effort to mobilize Russian military industry for a protracted war.[7] That effort and his speech also aim to portray Russia (falsely) as the modern incarnation of Stalin’s Soviet Union able to overwhelm its enemies with unstoppable masses of men and materiel despite Putin’s manifest unwillingness actually to put Russia fully on a war footing. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu began this effort at the end of 2022 and has continued it through this year, and Putin has been amplifying it.[8] The Russians clearly are attempting to mobilize their military industry and will surely generate some improvements. The exaggerated claims and unrealistic goals that Putin and Shoigu have made and set are intended in part to portray greater strength and potential than Russia has. They do not, however, reflect the challenges Russia faces in acquiring essential war materiel in the face of Western sanctions and in shortages of skilled labor. The latter challenge is made more acute by the need for Russia to balance mobilizing young men to fight and keeping them in the workforce.[9] That Putin should be mobilizing Russia’s defense industry now is surprising only in that it took him this long to start. The fact that he is not accompanying this mobilization with any suggestion that he would consider a compromise peace—particularly after Chinese Premier Xi Jinping appeared to offer to help negotiate one during a high-profile and dramatic visit to Moscow—indicates that Putin remains committed to achieving his aims by force.[10]

The continuing of Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as well as along the Luhansk and western Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war whose outcome is determined in large part by military realities on the ground. These attacks have now become not merely pointless, but actually harmful to Russian preparations for the next phase of this war, which will revolve around the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russian forces may or may not be able to drive Ukrainian troops out of Avdiivka or Bakhmut, but they will gain no significant operational advantage from doing either because they lack the ability to exploit such advances. The Russians appear to have little likelihood of making any gains that are even tactically significant in western Donetsk or on most of the Luhansk line—yet attacks in all these areas continue.

Putin’s continuation of these Russian offensive operations in the current operational and strategic context amounts to strategic malfeasance. It expends scarce Russian combat power in pursuit of operationally meaningless gains rather than setting conditions to receive and defeat a Ukrainian counter-offensive that everyone appears to expect imminently.
...

Putin has an unrealistic grasp of the details of World War II.   The post-war Russian leaders who were around for that war understood better how much Russia and the Soviet Union needed the help of other allies to have success.  The Russian troops would have likely starved without US C rations in massive quantities.  It needed supplies of other war-related goods from the US and Britain.  It took the US and British navies to deliver those needed supplies.  Putin is trying to win this war not only without that kind of support but instead in the face of significant western sanctions which is hampering his industrial base's support of the war.  There are already some indications that Russia is having trouble feeding the troops and supplying them with ammo.  Russia's mechanized forces have been devastated by western anti-tank weapons.  His army is currently incapable of running combined arms operations causing it to rely on World War I tactics without the combat power of tanks for the most part.

See, also:

New Russian campaign tries to entice men to fight in Ukraine

Advertisements promise cash bonuses and enticing benefits. Recruiters are making cold calls to eligible men. Enlistment offices are working with universities and social service agencies to lure students and the unemployed.

A new campaign is underway this spring across Russia, seeking recruits to replenish its troops for the war in Ukraine.

As fighting grinds on in Ukrainian battlegrounds like Bakhmut and both sides prepare for counteroffensives that could cost even more lives, the Kremlin's war machine badly needs new recruits.

A mobilization in September of 300,000 reservists — billed as a “partial” call-up — sent panic throughout the country, since most men under 65 are formally part of the reserve. Tens of thousands fled Russia rather than report to recruiting stations.
...

And:

 Russians holding over 500 Melitopol residents in torture chambers, mayor says

According to him, after each explosion in the city, the occupation administration intensifies filtration measures, keeps residents in torture chambers, and organizes kangaroo courts.

Read also: Russian invaders to ‘rename’ 86 streets in occupied Melitopol, mayor says

For the words "Glory to Ukraine" and any other statements of a pro-Ukrainian position, people are fined RUR 30,000 ($388) or held in a basement.

The Russians force prisoners to film videos "confessing to sabotage" to use in propaganda and to recruit new batches of Russian military to the occupied part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Fedorov said.

Read also: Loud explosion rocks Melitopol in the morning

The enemy chose Melitopol as a logistical and administrative hub as the city accounts for 70% of traffic to the temporarily occupied Crimea, Fedorov said.

This is why Russian occupation authorities try to confine residents to their homes en masse, so that Ukraine receives less information, he said.
...

And:

 Russia gives up on further offensive and focuses on deterring defence forces

According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin has abandoned plans for a further offensive in Ukraine this spring, so Russians will focus on deterring a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Details: The publication notes that Russia made this decision after failing to gain significant ground. Thus, Russia's military command decided to focus on deterring the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, which is expected to begin soon.
...

And:

 Crimean occupiers are starting to panic, president’s permanent rep to Crimea says

“Occupation administrations are very concerned, the military is already digging trenches practically along the entire coast of the Crimea peninsula, or they are digging trenches on the Kerch peninsula, at the isthmus,” said Tasheva.

“They are really starting to panic, they are very afraid of the Ukrainian advance into the territory of Crimea, and are trying to partially prepare places for shelter, in particular bomb shelters. And they started doing this after pressure from the local population in Crimea.”
...

In particular, she noted, Russians who live illegally in Crimea and representatives of the so-called “law enforcement agencies” are trying to evacuate their families from the cities of Dzhankoy and Krasnoperekopsk.

Russian occupiers began constructing fortifications in remote areas of Crimea on March 24, said Denys Chystikov, the Deputy Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in Crimea.

He added there is a significant presence of Russian military personnel on the peninsula.

The Kremlin uses occupied Crimea as a location to rotate personnel returning from the combat zone, he said, noting that they continue to bring mobilized people there, although fewer than before.
...