Russia unable to strike on different axis, will focus remaining rocket attacks on military

 ISW:

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A Ukrainian intelligence official supported ISW’s prior assessments that Russian forces are unable to conduct large-scale, simultaneous offensive campaigns on multiple axes.[8] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky stated on March 23 that Russian forces have demonstrated in the last year of the war that Russian forces are unable to maintain large-scale, strategic-level offensives on multiple axes of advance.[9] Skibitsky stated that Russian forces failed to achieve the expected quick or significant advances in the Donbas offensive that began in early 2023. Skibitsky stated that Ukrainian forces fixed Russian forces to multiple areas on the front line and that Russian forces in occupied Crimea and Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are on the defensive. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on March 21 that Russian forces will try to start another offensive, possibly even on multiple different axes, in the coming weeks.[10]

Russian forces may be shifting their missile strike tactics to focus on Ukrainian military facilities as overall Russian missile strikes decrease, indicating the depletion of Russia’s stocks of high-precision missiles. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian forces may be reorienting their strikes to focus on Ukrainian military facilities and force concentrations while continuing to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as opposed to prioritizing striking energy infrastructure as Russian forces did in fall 2022.[11] Skibitsky said that the GUR assessed that currently only 15 percent of Russia‘s pre-February 24, 2022 high-precision weapons stocks remain. Skibitsky stated that Russia‘s higher-end Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles comprise less than 10 percent of Russia’s total remaining stocks. Skibitsky stated that Russian forces cannot conduct missile attacks more than twice a month due to the growing need to conserve missiles, in contrast with how Russian forces conducted large air attacks at a higher frequency of about once a week in October 2022. Skibitsky stated that Russia‘s defense industrial base can produce only produce 20 to 30 Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles per month and that Russia‘s production of Iskander ballistic missiles is even lower. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are depleting their missile arsenal, which may constrain Russian missile strikes frequency and intensity[12]
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Russian forces have been so degraded that they lack the combat power to engage in major offensives within Ukraine.  Their mechanized forces have been so degraded that they are using antique tanks taken out of storage and will soon have to face modern western tanks operated by Ukraine.  The Russians have wasted much of their missile inventory on non-strategic targets and they are now returning focus to targeting Ukraine's military forces. 

See, also:

Russian forces lose latest tanks on second most intense direction of attack

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"The enemy attacked our positions [on the Kupiansk-Lyman front – ed.) 438 times within 24 hours using various artillery systems; 3 combat engagements and 10 air strikes occurred. And a distinctive feature of this area is that the enemy uses more regular troops and armoured vehicles.

Our soldiers have been burning many of their armoured vehicles for several weeks now, including the latest ones, every day. Over 10 of their latest T-90 and T-80 tanks have been destroyed there in the last few weeks.

Over the past 24 hours, four T-90 tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, a BTR-80 [armoured personnel carrier] and Akatsiya, Msta artillery systems and Buk anti-aircraft missile system were destroyed. In addition, 39 invaders were killed and 86 injured on this front, and 1 was taken prisoner of war."
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And:

 Putin’s shattered army will never recover

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It is the latest sign of a serious, perhaps fatal, armour shortage among Putin’s forces. As a former tank commander, I cannot overstate the insanity of sending such outdated heavy weaponry to the front – the Russians must be truly desperate. Either that or they have lost the plot.

In the 21st century, these old tanks are little more than steel coffins. A modern rifle could pierce their armour; a drone or modern Western tank could do far worse. To a “tankie” like me, it’s the equivalent of a First World War biplane taking on a new stealth fighter. If I was a Russian tank commander – God forbid – and my commanding officer told me to fight in one of these museum pieces, I would stand to attention, turn to the right, salute, and march home.
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Critics of my view will argue that it’s quantity not quality that matters; that even these relics in large numbers are a daunting prospect on the battlefield. Nonsense. One need only study the Battle of Kursk in 1943 – the largest tank battle in history – to see the folly of sending large numbers of old tanks against superior models and advanced anti-tank weaponry. The Russians lost many hundreds of T34s in that hideous battle, yet 80 years later they want to use outdated tanks against even more modern technology. It’s lunacy.

When Britain’s Challenger 2s arrive in Ukraine, they will pick off T55s as though in a fairground shooting gallery. And even if these Soviet tanks managed to hit a Challenger 2, it’s likely the crew wouldn’t even notice. A British tank round would probably go through two or three of them before it ran out of energy. It now makes complete sense why the Russians are trying to frame the rounds we are donating as biohazards (made as they are with harmless depleted uranium). They know they will decimate their “new” tank battalions, which will not be able to land a punch back.
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And:

 Russians in Bakhmut running out of steam, we will soon take advantage of it – Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander

And:

 Russia cannot meet arms delivery commitments because of war, Indian Air Force says

And:

 Prepare for the disintegration of Putin’s Russia

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By launching his unprovoked invasion last year, Vladimir Putin laid down a deliberate challenge to the international system established at the end of the Second World War, which upholds the sovereign integrity of the nation state. In addition, he and his nationalist acolytes have committed war crimes on an industrial scale, a fact now recognised by the International Criminal Court which recently issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president.

If, due to the irrational equivocation of Kyiv’s Western allies, Putin actually succeeded in achieving his war aims, just imagine the encouragement this would lend to other hostile states, such as China, Iran and North Korea, to pursue their own aggressive agendas.

Moreover, at a moment when many non-aligned countries are openly questioning whether they are witnessing the collapse of Western hegemony, anything that resembles success for the invaders in Ukraine would confirm their suspicions that the West no longer has the appetite or strength to protect its interests.
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Beijing, while giving the appearance of supporting Putin’s disastrous war, understands that its real interest is to exploit Russian weakness for its own advantage, whether by securing discounted oil supplies or territorial concessions. In future, this exploitation will be encouraged by the knowledge that, thanks to the heroism of Ukraine’s military forces, a depleted Moscow no longer has the ability to defend itself.

So rather than fretting about the potential consequences of a Russian defeat, Western leaders should adopt a similarly hard-nosed approach and ramp up their support for Ukraine, even if it ultimately results in the collapse of the Russian state. It was not that long ago, after all, that the West had to deal with the collapse of the Soviet Union, which reduced Moscow to impotence and penury.
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And:

 Ukrainians say Russian drones pose growing threat, more Stingers needed

And:

 Ukraine prepares counteroffensive as Russia's assault on Bakhmut flags

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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Europe on Thursday to increase and speed up its supply of weapons and impose additional sanctions on Russia, warning the war could otherwise drag on for years.

"If Europe waits, the evil may have time to regroup and prepare for years of war. It is in your power to prevent this," a clearly frustrated Zelenskiy said in a video address to European Union leaders, delivered from a train.

In particular, he reiterated demands for long-range missiles, ammunition and modern aircraft, and said the EU needed to speed up the process to grant Ukraine membership.
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