Ukraine counter offensive likely in April or May

 ISW:

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on March 27 that Ukrainian forces may be planning to launch a counteroffensive in April or May depending on weather conditions. In an interview with Estonian news outlet ERR, Reznikov stated that the Ukrainian General Staff might decide to use recently received Leopard 2 tanks in a possible spring counterattack.[19] Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks arrived in Ukraine on March 27, and US officials announced the acceleration of the deployment of Abrams tanks and Patriot missile systems to Ukraine on March 21.[20] The arrival of equipment in Ukraine likely sets conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, although a delay is likely between the arrival of new equipment in Ukraine’s ability to use it in a counteroffensive.

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Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Krokhmalne (20km northwest of Svatove), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (12km northwest of Svatove), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna), Vymika (27km southwest of Kreminna), and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna).[21] Geolocated footage published on March 26 shows elements of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) striking Ukrainian positions northeast of Kupyansk.[22] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on March 28 that Russian forces continue to use ”classic army tactics” with a considerable number of armored vehicles in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction.[23] A Russian milblogger posted footage on March 28 purportedly showing the 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operating near the Siverskyi Donets River south of Kreminna.[24] Another milblogger claimed that Russian forces continue to advance in the forests around Kreminna.[25] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration reported on March 29 that Russian forces are concentrating their main efforts on offensive operations in the Lyman direction and that Russian forces attempted to storm Bilohorivka.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces regained lost positions and made unspecified advances near Bilohorivka.[27] The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces pushed through Ukrainian defenses near Torske (14km west of Kreminna) and unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Terny, Nevske, and Makiivka, all 17 to 21km northwest of Kreminna. ISW has not observed visual confirmation that supports a Ukrainian advance near Bilohorivka or a Russian advance near Torske.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces maintain their presence in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblast border areas.[28] Russian forces likely maintain their presence in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts in an attempt to keep Ukrainian forces from deploying to other parts of the frontline.
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The contrast between the planned Ukraine operation and the current Russian "offensives" is interesting.  Russia's combined arms operations within Ukraine have been mostly a disaster for Russia and they are now limited to minor movements with their remaining combat power in the country.  We will have to see if Ukraine will have better operations when it gives over to the offensive.  I think it will have better-mechanized units.  It has already demonstrated better operational skills with its current use of old Soviet tanks.

See, also:

UK Defense Ministry: Ukraine pushes Wagner troops back from Bakhmut supply line

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According to the ministry's latest intelligence update, fighting continues in Ukraine's eastern city of Bakhmut, but "Russian assaults are still at a reduced level compared to recent weeks."

Despite recent Russian media reports of the state-backed mercenary group Wagner taking full control over the AZOM industrial complex in northern Bakhmut, the area "likely remains contested," reads the update.

"With Wagner having now confirmed the release of at least 5000 prisoner fighters, personnel shortages are likely hampering Russian offensive efforts in the sector," the report added.
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And:

 Ukraine hits Russian-held city deep behind front as talk of counteroffensive grows

Ukraine struck a railway depot and knocked out power in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol deep behind front lines on Wednesday amid growing talk from Kyiv of a counterassault against Russian forces worn out by a failed winter offensive.

Unverified images on the internet showed explosions lighting up the night sky with streaks of contrails in Melitopol, base of the Russian-controlled administration in Zaporizhzhia, one of five Ukrainian provinces Russia claims to have annexed.

Ukraine's exiled mayor of the city confirmed there were explosions there. Russia's state TASS news agency, citing Moscow-installed officials, said a railway depot was damaged and power knocked out to the city and nearby villages.
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The strike could hamper Moscow's rear logistics at a time when Kyiv has suggested it could soon mount a counterattack against Russian invasion forces who have scored no big victories in a months-long offensive despite the war's bloodiest fighting.
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And:

 Ukraine’s military success has depleted Russian armored vehicle reserves, says Pentagon chief

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“Ukrainians have inflicted significant losses on the Russians, and they’ve exhausted their armored vehicles in a way that no one could have imagined. And now we’re seeing Russia uncrate T-54s and T-55s because of the losses they’ve taken from the Ukrainians,” Austin said.

Earlier, Austin had stated that Ukrainian forces have good prospects for a successful counteroffensive this spring.
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And:

 Russian regiment loses ‘large proportion’ of tanks in ‘ill-disciplined attack’ on frontline

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“10th Tank Regiment’s losses have likely largely been due to tactically flawed frontal assaults similar to those in other recent failed Russian armoured attacks, such as around the town of Vuhledar,” the ministry said on Tuesday in its daily intelligence briefing.
The formation has reportedly been dogged by ill-discipline and poor morale.

Soldiers from the newly-formed 3rd Army Corps are often drunk, use obsolete weapons and received poor training in Belarus, according to Ukrainian sources.

Attempts by Russian forces to use armour in suicide missions to capture Ukrainian positions has become more prevalent in recent months.
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