Democrats likely to lose Senate this year
Sean Trende:
...This si from a long piece that really gets down in the weeds, but it seems clear that Democrats are in trouble in more than just red states. If they liked Obama's healthcare plan they probably can't keep their seats.
... the Senate playing field in 2014 is substantially worse for Democrats than it was in 2010. If Democrats ultimately suffer losses in marginal seats at the rate they did in 2010, we’d expect them to lose nine to 10 seats. This time, I’m going to take a slightly different tack, and look at these races from the point of view of the president’s job approval.
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With the movement of the president’s job approval numbers into the low 40s, the Democrats’ Senate odds would deteriorate considerably. Things should look dire for Democrats in the three open seats in red states, as well as for the four “red state” Democratic incumbents (Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, Mary Landrieu, and Mark Begich). Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia should look pretty rough, and Oregon, Michigan and Minnesota could be truly competitive.
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