Democrats still likely to lose Senate

Washington Times:
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In Virginia, the race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine is as close as ever, with RCP’s average of polls showing Mr. Kaine leading by 0.6 percentage points — a statistical tie. Since early July, neither candidate has been able to open up a lead of more than two percentage points in surveys. 
“They’re both former governors, so they both have pretty broad name recognition,” Mr. Tobias said. “A lot will depend on what happens at the top of the ticket, and whether there are people who will split votes. The Republicans have done a pretty good job of tying Kaine to the president, and I think that has kept him from pulling away.” 
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney have been campaigning relentlessly in Virginia, which Mr. Obama won four years ago. The latest poll in Virginia, conducted by Rasmussen on Aug. 23, showed a tie at 47 percent each. The RCP average of state polls gives Mr. Obama the slightest of advantages, by 0.6 percentage points. 
In a survey by Purple Strategies of Alexandria in mid-August, 52 percent of Virginia voters disapproved of the president’s job performance, while 42 percent approved. 
Among other races responsible for Republicans’ cautious optimism about the Senate are the contest in Wisconsin, where former Gov. Tommy Thompson holds a comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin, and Ohio, where Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel is tied with Sen. Sherrod Brown in the latest Columbus Dispatch poll of 1,758 likely voters. Of five Ohio polls in August, three show a virtual tie, with two surveys giving Mr. Brown leads of 10 points and seven points. 
Also, in Michigan, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is in a tight race with Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra. A poll by Mitchell Research on Aug. 23 gave Mr. Hoekstra a narrow lead, 45 percent to 44 percent. That survey of 1,277 likely voters validated an earlier poll by a Democratic-leaning firm that showed Mr. Hoekstra with a two-point lead over the incumbent. 
In Connecticut, where independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman is retiring, Republican nominee Linda McMahon leads by three percentage points over Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy in the latest poll, conducted by Rasmussen. But RCP’s average of state polls still gives Mr. Murphy the edge, by 2.6 percentage points. He was elected to Congress in 2006.
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In Montana Denny Rehberg leads Sen. John testers by four points in a Rasmussen survey. The race in Maine has also tightened of late as ads show the "independent" favorite has some big spending ways.  I suspect that if the Romney Ryan ticket does well in a state they will have coattails in most of them.  Missouri is an exception as long as Akin is still a candidate.

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