Turnover rate among Afghan recruits causes more work for US military

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NY Times:

The American commander in charge of building up Afghanistan’s security forces said Monday that in the next 15 months he would have to recruit and train 141,000 new soldiers and police officers — more than the current size of the Afghan Army — to meet President Obama’s ambitious goals for getting Afghan forces to fight the war on their own.

The commander, Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, said the large recruiting number was to allow for attrition rates in some units of nearly 50 percent.

Over all, General Caldwell said it would not be until October 2011 — three months after the deadline for the start of American withdrawals set by Mr. Obama — that he will have finished building the Afghan security forces to their full capacity. For now, he said, “they cannot operate independently.”

General Caldwell’s remarks, made by video feed from Kabul, the Afghan capital, to reporters at the Pentagon, underscored the challenge the Obama administration faces in trying to turn around the nine-year-old war, which has deteriorated on the ground and become increasingly unpopular among Americans. Training Afghan security forces to defend their own country remains at the heart of Mr. Obama’s strategy for ending the United States’ involvement in the war.

Despite the challenges, General Caldwell said he had made progress and had so far met his recruiting targets. Currently, the Afghan Army numbers 134,000, with a goal of 171,600 by October 2011. The Afghan National Police has 115,500 officers, with a goal of 134,000 by October 2011.

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Obama is going to have to be more realistic about the withdrawal schedule and he is going to have to do a better job of getting backing for the war effort. As the health care debacle has demonstrated, Obama is overrated as a salesman.

Caldwell is a good general and he needs to be given a realistic schedule. He is dealing with a largely illiterate group of men with dubious loyalties. Once you expand beyond the group that made up the Northern Alliance it is hard to find dependable fighters. We also need to get Karzai out of the way of recruiting local militias to defend the towns and villages from marauding Taliban forces.

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