Gallup generic goes GOP by 10

Nate Silver, NY Times:

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The poll stealing the headlines this morning is from Gallup, and for good reason: it gives the Republicans a whopping 10-point lead on the generic ballot. This is, in fact, an all-time record for the Republicans: Gallup has been conducting this survey for almost 70 years, and Republicans have never managed to have quite that large of an edge before.

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Making matters worse still for Democrats, Gallup’s survey — and some other generic ballot polls — are still polling registered rather than likely voters, whereas its polls of likely voters are generally more reliable in midterm elections. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve found that the gap between registered and likely voter polls this year is about 4 points in the Republicans’ favor — so a 10-point lead in a registered voter poll is the equivalent of about 14 points on a likely-voter basis. Thus, even if this particular Gallup survey was an outlier, it’s not unlikely that we’ll begin to see some 8-, 9-, 10-point leads for Republicans in this poll somewhat routinely once Gallup switches over to a likely voter model at some point after Labor Day — unless Democrats do something to get the momentum back.

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I think most generic ballots still are skewed toward Democrats despite this results. In passed elections it has been off by about 5 points in favor of Democrats. While many analyst put the likely Republican gain at about 50 to 60 seats, it would not surprise me to see a shift of as many as 80 seats.

The Democrats certainly deserve that kind of drubbing with their arrogant attitude toward voters who clearly said they did not want the health care bill Democrats were pushing plus the disastrous "stimulus" bill which has given us nothing but a larger debt. If nothing else Democrats have proved that liberalism does not work.