Republican's 2010 Senate chances

Karl Rove:

Democrats began the year as masters of the political universe, winning the White House and increasing their majorities in Congress. But the year is ending badly for them. Their top initiative, health care, is deeply unpopular. Congress's approval rating is 26%, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's is 28%, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's is an anemic 14%.

Political currents are running against the party of Barack Obama. Democrats now trail Republicans by four points in Gallup's generic ballot poll. In 1994, the year the GOP took control of Congress, it wasn't until March that Republicans took the lead in that poll—and then only by one point and for a short period of time.

With a good environment this election cycle, Republicans have recruited competitive candidates who could turn otherwise close contests into runaway victories, likely defeats into wins or at least close contests that, if things break right, tip to the GOP.

Today, there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate. In January 2011, there could be 44, 46 or more if the party runs strong campaigns in contests that haven't jelled yet, or if some Democrats retire instead of risking defeat.

One feature giving Republicans an edge is that several senate seats are up for grabs because the politicians who were elected to fill them are now serving in the Obama administration. This includes seats formerly held by Mr. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

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In Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd trails former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons 35% to 48% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails Republican State Sen. Gilbert Baker 41% to 47% in the latest polls, though Mr. Baker must first get past a multicandidate GOP primary. In California, Sen. Barbara Boxer is vulnerable. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina could be a strong candidate against her if she can win her nomination battle and use it to introduce herself to voters.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats are fighting themselves as Rep. Joe Sestak takes on Sen. Arlen Specter. Whoever wins that bruising primary will have to take on Republican Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is putting together a strong campaign.

One race that hasn't jelled yet is North Dakota. Republicans want Gov. John Hoeven to run—he leads Democrat Sen. Byron Dorgan by 19 points in a matchup.

In Nevada, Mr. Reid has an $8 million war chest and 35 years in office. But he trails one-term GOP state Sen. Sue Lowden 41% to 51% and twice-defeated Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian 42% to 48%, even after a $1 million media blitz. If the primary fight doesn't splinter conservatives, no amount of money will guarantee that Mr. Reid will remain in the Senate.

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The GOP has done a better job of recruiting good candidates than the Democrats this time around. I think Sen. Cornyn deserves some credit for that along with a better environment for Republicans in general. Democrats no longer have Chuck Schumer running their effort and they have lost much of the Wall Street money he was able to bring to the table for them.