Health care gets uglier for Democrats

John Fund:

The Senate's compromise bill on health care was announced on Wednesday to much fanfare. But there's not much there for moderate Democrats to write home about. It waters down a provision creating a "public option," but it also expands (to include people over 55) Medicare, a program already expected to go bankrupt in 2017.

The Senate bill is so unwieldy that the health-care system it will create will almost certainly break apart and force us into Canadian-style care. As Rep. Anthony Weiner (D., N.Y.) said in a statement, the Medicare expansion "would perhaps get us on the path to a single payer model." That grim prospect means there's still a chance to defeat or reshape the health-reform effort.

Opponents of ObamaCare will be aided by polls showing that it is even less popular than HillaryCare was a year into the Clinton presidency. Back in December 1993, Gallup found that 47% of voters backed HillaryCare, with 32% opposed. Today, an average of health-care surveys at Pollster.com shows support for ObamaCare at 38.8%, with 51.4% against.

The difference is that in 1993 and 1994, ads pointing out the weaknesses of HillaryCare were ubiquitous on TV. This time the White House has bullied the health-care industry into silence or sullen support.

But the falling poll numbers tell us anyone who tries to force a full health-care debate that pushes a vote past the holidays will not suffer politically. One reason the Democrats are frantic for a vote before Christmas is that they fear what will happen if senators have to go home and talk with constituents before voting.

Even if the Senate passes something before Christmas, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) says the bill will likely have to go to a conference committee. There differences between The Senate version and the bill that has already passed the House must be reconciled.

Mrs. Pelosi says "we'd do almost anything" to finish the bill this year. But it is unlikely the House will be able to vote on a final bill until January. That delay gives opponents time to raise money for a campaign aimed at House members who were dragooned into voting for the Pelosi bill in November.

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Republicans should campaign in 2010 on a platform of rolling back this unpopular legislation if the Democrat do manage to pass it. The anger and passion of the Town Hall meetings will only become more intense if the Democrats do push it through Congress. This time the Democrats will not be able to blame their defeat on Harry and Louise of the Swift vets.