Clinton repeats Howard Dean mistake

Karen Tumulty:

Along with a change of her political fortunes as the result of her devastating loss in Iowa and dropping poll numbers in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's once-flush presidential campaign now faces a problem that few would have expected at this point: a sudden urgency to raise a lot of money fast.

With momentum against her and a battle plan that appears to be staking everything on the big and expensive states like New York and California that hold their primaries on February 5, Clinton's campaign is putting new pressure on its fundraisers to come up with the cash she will need to carry her through. "Clearly, by every measure, I hear they are in a real financial crunch," says one prominent fundraiser. "Here's the dilemma: You have a situation where there clearly is a full court press to raise more money, but considering the state of decline of the campaign, there's a real question of whether people are going to want to give. It's more than just raising money; you've got to give people a sense of potential."

One reason for the new drive to raise cash quickly is the fact that Clinton spent lavishly on what turned out to be a debacle in Iowa. Numbers circulating among fundraisers — but not confirmed by the campaign — suggest that the campaign may have as little as $15 million to $25 million left on hand. While that is enormous by historic standards, it is less than half the nearly $50.5 million she had at the end of September (when she enjoyed a significant advantage over Barack Obama's $36 million on hand).

What's more, campaign officials believe that Obama's Iowa victory has almost certainly been accompanied by a financial windfall for his campaign, particularly over the Internet, where he has had a far stronger operation than Clinton has. The Obama campaign declined to provide any figures, with spokesman Bill Burton saying only: "There's a lot of energy and enthusiasm, and it's continuing to increase."

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They probably both over spent, but it is more costly for the loser who does not get the flood of people wanting to get on the band wagon before it is to late. Howard Dean made the same mistake in Iowa four years ago and had no money to compete in the subsequent races. It is even more difficult this year because of the compression of the election schedule which gives you very little time to catch up. To a large extent Huckabee and McCain have the same problem. It could be that after the South Carolina primary Rudy Giuliani will be the only one with enough money to compete in the big states. Clinton has several donors, but they may be maxed out already which means she has to spend time looking for new donors rather than campaigning.