Why the surge is working

The Belmont Club:

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Only time will tell if the encouraging signs, reported here and elsewhere, really last. But if the changes last the then what factor tipped the balance? Even though the number of troops committed to the Surge is relatively small -- so comparatively small it has been pooh-poohed -- it is possible that the enemies were themselves stretched to the breaking point and the additional forces simply began the process of snapping them. Another possibility is that the hidden, cumulative improvements in Coalition capabilities finally came together: the lessons learned by command, growing experience of field officers, the training and mobilization of Iraqi forces, and the pent-up disgust of the population at the men who were terrorizing them. It's possible that Democrats may claim some share of the credit arguing that by threatening to abandon Iraq they forced both the Administration and the Iraqi government to act decisively against militia groups which were previously tolerated. Success has a thousand fathers. Failure is an orphan.

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The surge is primarily working because we and the Iraqis are putting more visible force on the streets and keeping it there. This higher force to space ratio makes it more difficult for the enemy to operate and move to contact without being detected. The enemy in Iraq has attempted to avoid contact with US and Iraqi forces whenever possible. By being out there we are denying him access to the people as well. We are also denying him his principal means of attack on our forces, i.e. IEDs placed on the routes to and from the forward operating bases. Since the troops are staying out with the people there is less traffic to attack.

The reason why US spokesmen are cautious is that they know they are facing an adaptive enemy. In the past it has taken the enemy time to respond to different changes in tactics by our forces. So far he has been too off balanced by the surge and the blocking operations in Diyala where the enemy wanted to flee, to be able to respond. It is hoped that as the surge expands it will keep the enemy off balanced and keep our forces operating in his OODA loop.