Russia's dance with the ayatollahs

Amir Taheri:

AS the diplomatic maneuvers to pressure Iran to rein in its nuclear ambitions continue, the message one hears in policy circles in most capitals is simple: The key is in Moscow.

Of all the powers involved in this showdown with the Islamic Republic, only Russia is in a position to tip the balance between a peaceful resolution or war.

Russia is building Iran's first and, so far, only nuclear power plant near Bushehr. It could slow or suspend the project pending a diplomatic resolution of the crisis. Such a move could strengthen the hands of those within the Tehran establishment that want a moratorium on uranium processing to prevent tension from further escalating.

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All that, however, may lead nowhere. Some analysts suspect that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may actually want a military conflict with the United States as the opening shot in his promised "Clash of Civilizations." He seems convinced that America, plagued by bitter internal dissension, lacks the stomach for a serious fight with the Islamic Republic and its radical allies throughout the Middle East. Thus he may want a clash over the nuclear issue, which many Iranians (thanks to the regime's Goebbelsian presentation) see as a matter of national pride.

But even then Russia could either prevent a clash or hasten it by vetoing or voting for a strong resolution in the U.N. Security Council. The Russian position there is crucial because China, which also has a veto, would not be prepared to isolate itself by siding with Iran if Russia sides with the United States. If Russia vetoes, so will China. If Russia doesn't veto, the most that China might do to please Iran is to abstain.

The Bush administration knows all this. That's why it's starting to build pressure on Russia ahead of this July's G-8 summit, which Russian President Vladimir Putin is to host. The American calculation is that Putin, having won the presidency of the G-8 for Russia for the first time, is unlikely to start his tenure by splitting the group to please the Iranian mullahs.

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Russis has not been very smart about its dealing with Iran, so I would not expect much now.