The ground shaking beneath the feet of Iran's nuke facilities

Amir Taheri:

IN the present state of scientific knowledge, it is still impossible to forecast earthquakes. Nevertheless, we know which parts of the globe are most likely to be struck. And in the center of perhaps the most active of these zones is the Iranian Plateau - where at least one nuclear reactors is now under construction, with more planned.

Over the past century or so, Iran has experienced more earthquakes than any other part of the globe - at least one tremor each day. Last week's earthquake in the south-central province of Lorestan is the latest reminder of that fact.

Since Iran started properly recording earthquakes in the late 1940s, it has suffered at least one "big one" every decade: Torud (1950s), Boein-Zahra (1960s), Tabas-Golshan (1970s), Qazvin (1980s), Rudbar-Tarom (1990s) and Bam (December 2003). By official estimates, these earthquakes claimed the lives of 126,000 people, injured a further 800,000 and made 1.8 million people homeless. At times, the damage from one quake amounted to more than 7 percent of the nation's GDP.

It is thus surprising that the safety aspect of Iran's nuclear program has received little attention.

Inside Iran, the debate has been propelled away from real issues with the help of jingoistic slogans. Abroad, the accent has been put on security issues, with reference to the program's suspected military dimension.

As far as I am aware, the safety issue has not been seriously raised either at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or at the U.N. Security Council, which debated Iran's program last month.

Yet the safety risk for the region is readily manifest. Even if the program has no military dimension, it would still be prudent to demand that it be put under a moratorium until this issue is fully, and publicly, debated inside and outside the country.

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