Why Russia is failing in Ukraine

 Rob Lee and Michael Kofman:

 How the Battle for the Donbas Shaped Ukraine’s Success

This is an excellent analysis that is well worth reading in full.  It hits on these points:

  • Ukraine’s successes in Kherson and Kharkiv were largely a result of the losses it inflicted on the Russian military in the Battle for the Donbas in the spring and early summer.
  • Attrition enabled successful maneuver warfare.
  • The course of the war in 2023 will depend heavily on external support and how well Russia integrates mobilized soldiers.
The attrition of Russian troops has been significant and many units are operating with a fraction of their original strength.

See, also:

Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensives that shocked Putin and reshaped the war

First, a lightning sweep across Kharkiv. Then, a slower grind into Kherson. In two months of stunning gains, Ukraine’s military redrew the battlefield map and proved it can fight to win.

And:

 Russian soldiers deserting en masse in Zaporizhzhia Oblast General Staff

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