The models used to ruin the economy

Miranda Divine:

The random antibody testing of 3,000 people across the state of New York has delivered yet another blow to the faith we placed in the computer models that Governor Cuomo and President Trump used to shut down the economy and place all of America under virtual home detention.

The tests show 2.7 million in New York state have developed antibodies through exposure. Meaning, with 16,000 COVID-19 deaths, the state’s mortality rate is a little less than 0.6 percent. Nowhere near as lethal as the dire 3.4 percent death rate the World Health Organization was billing early last month, and these figures will keep changing as more data comes to hand.

And it wasn’t all because we are perfect practitioners of self-isolation and hand washing.

The President’s coronavirus task force took into account those mitigation measures when it used an amalgam of models to predict that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans likely would die.

A model from the University of Washington has since revised the projected death toll to 60,000 down from an initial 162,000.

As of Friday, 51,000 Americans had lost their lives, and now the updated models are edging closer to grim reality.
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We know now that 64 percent of those who have died in New York were aged over 70. Of patients hospitalized with the disease, 94 percent had underlying conditions such as obesity or diabetes. Did the models include a scenario in which we focused efforts on protecting the elderly and infirm while allowing the young and healthy to keep the economy ticking?

We know now that less populated rural states have suffered less than New York, California and Michigan, so did the models consider targeted shutdowns and travel restrictions in hard-hit or dense areas, while allowing the economy to breathe in the rest of the country?

The consequences of overreach are dire. The International Monetary Fund this week warned the coronavirus has plunged the world into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Famine, war and human misery are sure to follow.
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We should immediately become more focused on those who are vulnerable and let the rest of the country get back to business.  Those most opposed to doing this are Democrats who see political advantage in a ruined economy.  Their advice should be ignored and vilified for this position.