Regime in Iran approaching political collapse?

Hamid  Enayat:

The disqualification of 90 incumbent members of parliament (Majlis) for the next parliamentary elections to be held on February 22 in Iran indicates the intention of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to consolidate his regime so he can thwart the crises that have been plaguing it.

The disqualified parliamentarians belong to groups other than Khamenei's inner circle and were disqualified by the unelected Guardian Council, which is entirely and exclusively under the direct control of Khamenei.  The supreme leader, however, knows better than anyone else what kind of risks such purging of current M.P.s and other candidates poses.

But what other option is left for Iran's religious dictatorship?  In a country rich in natural resources, where more than two thirds of the population is  living below the poverty line, unemployment is raging among the younger generation, especially the most educated, who cry freedom and democracy and a decent life, reflected in the November uprisings, when that segment of the population took the streets against fascism.

Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian regime president, has presented his next year's budget, which is far from practical.  Iran's oil exports have suffered significant setbacks since the imposition of United States sanctions.  The budget is based on the daily export of 1 million barrels of oil, which is undoubtedly far-fetched.

After killing more than 1,500 people and incarcerating 12,000 more during the last November's uprisings, and at a time when the ruling clerics are facing a deep legitimacy crisis, they can hang on to power only by resorting to sheer repression.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's main force for imposing the repression in the country, is facing defections due to increased isolation after the events of the last few months.

During the uprising last November, a popular outcry in January over the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane, slogans chanted by people targeted Khamenei.  The elimination of Qassem Soleimani, among the regime's most powerful figures, also struck an irreparable blow to the regime.

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The regime is under stress and is suffering infighting and defections as they struggle against their own people.  Losing Soleimani was a seminal moment for the regime and it still appears discombobulated by it.