Saudi strategy not working to reduce shale production
Sober Look:
...There are several charts at the link above which support the conclusions. It seems clear that the people who created the shale revolution did not stop innovating when the market conditions changed. They became leaner and more efficient. In the meantime they are the ones who have put a cap on what OPEC can charge for its product.
Is it working? So far the results have been less than what the Saudis had hoped for. After a bounce from the lows, crude oil has been trading in a relatively tight range, with WTI futures fluctuating around $60/bbl.
How is this price stability possible when the common wisdom was that oil prices below $70/bbl will force most US producers to close shop and North American production would collapse? After all we've seen a spectacular decline in active oil rig count. The answer has less to do with rigs that have been taken offline and more with the technology that remains. After the inefficient rigs have been shut, US rig count is starting to stabilize.
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From multi-well padding (multiple wells in a single location) to superior drill bits, technology is helping to keep production levels high. Well completion costs and the speed of drilling have improved to levels many thought were not possible.
With the inefficient rigs mothballed, the remaining capacity is quite lean. It seems that $60/bbl can now sustain a good portion of current production capacity and even turn a profit.
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