Reliance on Russian rockets puts US space strategy at risk

Wall Street Journal:

The Pentagon's most senior space commander warned of a growing risk of conflict in space, and questioned U.S. readiness to tackle emerging threats because of its reliance on Russian-made rocket engines.

Gen. William Shelton, Commander of Air Force Space Command told an industry conference on Tuesday that ,he supported the development of a U.S.-made rocket engine to replace a Russian booster that the U.S. uses to send half of its military and intelligence payloads into orbit. Gen. Shelton said a homegrown alternative is important given Russia's recent pledge to halt sales of its rocket to the U.S. military.

The state of the U.S. space industry has come into sharp focus in recent weeks following Russia's move and a brewing legal battle between the Pentagon, its main rocket provider and a new entrant known as SpaceX run by entrepreneur Elon Musk, who alleges he is being crowded out of the multibillion-dollar market.

Gen. Shelton said there were indications that some nations are planning to have space-based weapons as part of their military doctrine. He didn't identify potential adversaries. Analysts have long pointed to technological advances in the sector made by China and Russia.

Speaking at an industry conference in Colorado Springs, Co., he said that in some future conflict it could be that "the first shots fired are in cyber and space."

The Pentagon's satellite launches are currently handled by United Launch Alliance LLC, a joint venture between Boeing Co. BA +1.06% and Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT +0.82%United Launch relies largely on rocket engines imported from Russia's state-owned NPO Energomash OAO. The U.S. has enough engines for two years of planned launches, but concerns about the supply chain in the wake of Ukraine crisis have prompted the Pentagon to begin an urgent review to assess domestic alternatives.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said last week that Moscow will supply the rocket engines to the U.S. only if Washington provides proof that they will be used solely for nonmilitary purposes. The statement was apparently retaliation against U.S. restrictions on technology exports to Russia that could be used for defense purposes.

"[Our] industrial base has withered a bit," said Gen. Shelton, stressing his support for an all-new rocket engine was a personal view. He's due to retire in August, and the Pentagon is still reviewing a report on the alternatives to the Russian equipment.
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An all new rocket would cost about a billion dollars and take five years to develop.  It shows just how vulnerable we are to our lack of an alternative at this point.  It was a mistake to rely on the Russians to begin with.  It will be interesting to see if private space ventures can fill the void.  That would be ideal since we are a few years away from a new administration that would take the threat seriously.