Cruz leaps to substantial lead in runoff with Dewhurst
The Texas Senate runoff Republican primary is Tuesday, and according to a new Public Policy Polling survey, it looks likely that tea party candidate Ted Cruz is going to trounce the more establishment Republican David Dewhurst.
Cruz has a 10-point lead in the PPP poll, breaking the 50-percent threshold and up from a 5-point lead a couple weeks ago.
Cruz also holds a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as "very excited," an important measure in a July runoff election where turnout will be low. The only reason Dewhurst is still somewhat competitive is because of a huge advantage among supporters that are "not that excited" to vote....Sarah Palin, ... is a favorable endorser for Cruz. Thirty-one percent of Texas voters said they were more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Palin, compared with 24 percent that were less likely.
...In early voting the poll shows a 55 to 40 Cruz lead. Among Tea Party voters Cruz leads 75-22. If these numbers hold up when the vote counts they will raise more questions about the effect of negative advertising. Dewhurst has been hammering Cruz with ads that seem unfair to many but they do not seem to be moving the voters.