Karzai told not to declare victory

NY Times:

On Monday, as the vote-counting in Afghanistan was nearing an end, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was briefed by the American ambassador in Kabul, Karl W. Eikenberry. The same day, the ambassador delivered a blunt message to the front-runner, President Hamid Karzai: “Don’t declare victory.”

The slim majority tentatively awarded Mr. Karzai in Afghanistan’s fraud-scarred election has put the Obama administration in an awkward spot: trying to balance its professed determination to investigate mounting allegations of corruption and vote-rigging while not utterly alienating the man who seems likely to remain the country’s leader for another five years.

Mrs. Clinton and Ambassador Eikenberry, senior administration officials said, wanted to prevent Mr. Karzai or his backers from pre-empting an outside investigation of allegations of irregularities in the Aug. 20 vote.

“We realize that the allegations have reached such a level that we need to be very careful to allow the process to breathe,” said an administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. “The message was, Let’s make sure that the electoral bodies do their work, and do it rigorously.”

On Tuesday, the United Nations-backed commission that is the ultimate arbiter of the vote said it found “clear and convincing evidence of fraud” at several polling stations and ordered a partial recount.

Election officials said Mr. Karzai won 54.1 percent of the vote, a percentage that, if certified, would spare him a runoff against his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, who received 28.3 percent.

But in recent days, the Obama administration has grown increasingly alarmed by the raft of allegations that ballot-stuffing and phantom polling stations generated lopsided margins in favor of Mr. Karzai.

For the United States, the problem is twofold: the fraud complaints against Mr. Karzai are almost certain to undercut his legitimacy if he is sworn in for another term as president, and American officials want whoever is president to have credibility with the Afghan people and with the international community.

Yet the more outside observers complain about fraud, the more alienated Mr. Karzai may become, and the less willing he may be to work with the United States or its allies, administration officials said.

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So where does Karzai go for help if he cannot bet it from the US and its allies? It is unlikely that Hugo Chavez has the resources to take our place and Iran is already looking for someone to backstop that country against likely sanctions.

I have used this analogy before, but it is still one of my favorite stories. When Abe Lemons was coach of the University of Texas men's basketball program some players asked him, "Coach, do we really have to run all these wind sprints?" Lemons responded, "No, you don't have to run them, but I don't have to let you play either."

Sometimes decisions are not as hard as they appear.