New sanctions for Iran--Don't count on them

NY Times:

The Obama administration is scrambling to assemble a package of harsher economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program that could include a cutoff of investments to the country’s oil-and-gas industry and restrictions on many more Iranian banks than those currently blacklisted, senior administration officials said Sunday.

The administration also is seeking to build a broader coalition of partners for sanctions so that it may still be able to act against Iran even if China and Russia were to veto harsher measures proposed in the United Nations Security Council.

“There are a variety of options still available,” Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” said of the potential list of targets for Iranian sanctions, notably in energy equipment and technology. He called it “a pretty rich list to pick from.”

Administration officials began describing what new sanctions might look like with a critical face-to-face meeting between the United States and Iran just four days away. The Americans are expected to press their demand for quick access and blueprints to a newly disclosed Iranian nuclear site. Iran, for its part, showed new defiance Sunday by test-firing three short-range missiles.

In pushing for more stringent sanctions, the administration wants to accomplish two potentially irreconcilable goals: forcing Iran back to negotiations over its nuclear program — which the United States and its Western allies suspect is meant to create a weapon — while at the same time winning the support of Russia and China, which are eager to preserve their significant economic ties to Iran.

For now, administration officials said, the United States was not likely to win support for an embargo on shipments of gasoline or other refined fuel to Iran. The European allies, one official said, view this as a “blunt instrument” that could hurt ordinary Iranians, inflame public opinion and unite the country behind the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose legitimacy within Iran has remained under a cloud since his June 12 re-election that opponents claim was rigged.

...

Even if they got the sanctions they are seeking it is unlikely that the religious bigots running Iran would alter what they think is a mission from God. You also have to ask yourself why the administration is scramling at this point since this was their strategy all along. Did they really think Obama was going to be able to talk them out of their primary objectives?

I think it is fair to speculate that they intended to spring this new facility on Iran at any talks they were able to cobble together. However, now that Iran has fessed up to the facility, it is a pretty good bet they have cleaned up so that any inspection is unlikely to find a smoking nuke. It will be very difficult to present much more than flawed WMD report at this point.