The al Qaeda Diaspora

Washington Times:

While Osama bin Laden and his No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are believed to remain in a tribal redoubt along the Afghan-Pakistani border, midlevel al Qaeda leaders are fanning out, recruiting new middlemen and establishing stronger bases in Somalia and Yemen, U.S. and Pakistani officials say.

The moves reflect growing pressure on al Qaeda from U.S. drone attacks and Pakistani military operations that have killed nine of al Qaeda's top 20 commanders as well as Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud.

"There are indications that some al Qaeda terrorists have started to view the tribal areas of Pakistan as an even rougher place to be," a U.S. counterterrorism official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Washington Times.

"Some of these terrorists have undoubtedly ended up in Somalia and Yemen, among other places."

On Sunday, John Brennan, the top White House adviser on counterterrorism and homeland security, delivered a letter from President Obama to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh asking for more cooperation on fighting al Qaeda's growing presence in the country. Mr. Obama also offered additional foreign aid to the poverty-plagued nation, according to U.S. and Yemeni officials.

Militants also have been turning up increasingly in Pakistani cities.

On Aug. 19, Pakistani authorities recovered the body of an Algerian, Abdullah Noori, a close associate of bin Laden's, in the Tehkal section of Peshawar, a Pakistani city that is the capital of the North West Frontier Province. According to local police, the body showed additional marks of violence.

Pakistani police also arrested Saifullah, a Pakistani militant considered close to al Qaeda, in Bara Kahu, a suburb of Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. Police said Saifullah had moved from the Waziristan tribal region seeking medical treatment after being injured in a drone attack.

On Aug. 28, police arrested 12 purported al Qaeda members, including Sudanese, Swedes and Turks in the Dera Ghazi Khan district of Punjab province. According to district police officer Muhammad Rizwan, the district, located at the crossroads of Waziristan, Baluchistan and Punjab provinces, has been a conduit for al Qaeda fighters and arms moving to and from Taliban-controlled tribal lands.

...

U.S. officials say there appears to be a nexus between al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia to coordinate training and attacks on Western targets.

In Somalia, al Qaeda has developed strong ties over the past year to al Shabab, a militant group that has waged war against a wobbly secular government. Al Qaeda also has invested resources in recruiting young children to train for suicide missions in Somalia as well as using young Somali men to fight against U.S. troops along the Afghan-Pakistani border, a U.S. official in Afghanistan said.

...

Al Qaeda in Yemen and Saudi Arabia merged into a single organization earlier this year, calling itself Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen. The group has taken advantage of tribal and religious affiliations to establish safe havens in rugged and largely ungoverned tribal regions that have been difficult for U.S. intelligence to penetrate.

...

Al Qaeda did similar moves after they were driven from Afghanistan. Now their comfort zone in Pakistan has been rattled and they are dispersing again. At some point we will see the UAVs back over Yemen and Somalia. Both of these areas have fewer places to hide, so they will probably try to do so in the cities. This will make them vulnerable in other ways particularly to being spotted by security forces in places like Yemen. Yemen's government has been hot and cold on dealing with these guys, but they are a threat that must be dealt with. The Saudis may also have to help with dealing with the threat, since they are a primary target.