TV ads over rated
I think he is right. After super Tuesday Obama had a huge advantage over Clinton in TV ads outspending her by three to one, but Clinton still won most of the major primaries some by lopsided majorities.With his decision to forgo public funding, Barack Obama can raise as much as he wants, giving him a huge financial advantage in the fall campaign. If he spends that cash on organization, registration, and get-out-the-vote efforts, he will absolutely get his money's worth. But if he spends a major portion of it on television advertising, he will only be doing John McCain a favor.
That's because the era of TV advertising in presidential general elections is over.
It expired without anyone's really realizing it, a victim of a new media age -- and terrible implementation. In truth, TV ads have never been that important in presidential general elections (as opposed to the primary process). They're rarely very good, and voters have always had many other competing, and more credible, sources of information out there. After all, if there's one thing Americans know how to do, it's how to watch TV ads with a jaundiced eye.
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One reason for this is the local TV market does not dominate viewing like it used to. Personally, the only time I watch local TV is for a sporting event. For an ad to get my attention it needs to make be interesting enough to be featured in the news on the Brit Hume show. If it gets coverage there I am much more likely to pay attention to it than if it is run during the advertising portion of the show.
I think that is why the Swift vets ad was so effective. BTW, their most effective ad was the one where they showed Kerry in his testimony before Congress in the early 70's. It reminded people what they did not like about the guy much more effectively than their anti hero ads. The latter did have an effect but it mainly played into the theme that Kerry was a phony and their were many other elements to that theme that enhanced the image. The killer image was of Kerry calling all Vietnam vets war criminals.
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