Behind the Isrealis operational pause in Gaza

Captain's Quarters:

The hesitation of Ehud Olmert to order the movement of ground troops into northern Gaza for unspecified diplomatic initiatives now can be understood. Reports have Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak demanding that Bashar Assad expel Hamas from Syria if the terrorist group does not release IDF soldier Gilad Shalit....

...

The compromise still relies on Israel's release of prisoners convicted in court for attacks against them, and the Israelis are probably not terribly enthusiastic about trading them for someone abducted by terrorists. It still rewards the act of kidnapping IDF soldiers, something that will guarantee more kidnappings. If the Israelis don't jump at this deal, it's hard to blame them.

...
My speculation is that the Israelis would trade the recently arrested Hamas officers, since the group would know that the same thing would happen if they tried this stunt again. I think that had a good bit to do with the round up, because they anticipated this type of horse trading. It probably would be better thanthe zoo of a trial they would have to have for the guys they just rounded up.

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