Why Democrats were so desperate to vote on troop reductions in Iraq

Michael Gordon, NY Times:

The top American commander in Iraq has drafted a plan that projects sharp reductions in the United States military presence there by the end of 2007, with the first cuts coming this September, American officials say.

According to a classified briefing at the Pentagon this week by the commander, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the number of American combat brigades in Iraq is projected to decrease to 5 or 6 from the current level of 14 by December 2007.

Under the plan, the first reductions would involve two combat brigades that would rotate out of Iraq in September without being replaced. Combat brigades, which generally have about 3,500 troops, do not make up the bulk of the 127,000-member American force in Iraq.

American officials emphasized that any withdrawals would depend on continued progress, including the development of competent Iraqi security forces, a reduction in Sunni Arab hostility toward the new Iraqi government and the assumption that the insurgency will not expand beyond Iraq's six central provinces. Even so, the projected troop withdrawals in 2007 are more significant than many experts had expected.

Estimating the precise number of American troops that may be deployed in Iraq at the end of 2007 is difficult, one officer said. A reduction of eight combat brigades would equal about 28,000 troops. But that does not mean that the reduction in the remainder of the force would be proportional: troops would still be needed to help with logistics, intelligence, training and airstrikes.

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Proponents of General Casey's approach described it as a carefully synchronized plan to turn over authority for security to the new Iraqi government. The administration has repeatedly said that American troops will begin to stand down as Iraqi forces stand up and begin to assert control. Although the planning for 2006 is advanced, officials say the projected withdrawals for 2007 are more of a forecast of what may be possible given current trends than a hard timeline.

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Gordon is one of the authors of a book on the war Cobra II. My criticism of the book can be found here. The Casey plan is one based on results on the ground in Iraq and departures pursuant to that plan imply a US victory and defeat for the insurgents in Iraq. Such results also imply a defeat for the Democrats who have said that the war is unwinnable. The Democrats were trying to steal a march on Casey and the military and make it look like the US was having to retreat from a battlefield where it had failed. They are a party invested in defeat in Iraq and a victory shows how wrong they have been on national security matters. Even as US troops come home as winners, they will still be trying to portray that victory as a loss. They just cannot afford a win. This has been going on since the war began and it will not end when Iraq is on its own.

It should be noted that the Iraqi forces are still dependent on the US for logistic support and those US forces will in turn have a continuing need for force protection. Until Iraq can sustain its forces in the field it will continue to need US help. This is not all bad. It will make them a more dependable ally in the war on terror which has been one of the major objectives of the war.

The improvement in the Iraqi forces has been a key ingrediant in the recent success we have had in Iraq. They have increased the force to space ratio to a point where it is easier to intercept the enemy as he tries to move to attack. The increase in Iraqi forces has also corresponded to a significant increase in Iraqis calling the tip line with actionable intelligence on enemy forces and weapons caches. These are the factors that made Zarqawi so depressed before he was found and killed.

The current negotiations on amnesty may also be responsible for increased intelligence, particularly on al Qaeda. The Iraqi based insurgents can offer up info on al Qaeda to get a better deal for their agreement to stop fighting. If that deal is struck, al Qaeda will be facing continued destruction if it fights virtually alone in Iraq.