Attrition bites the Taliban

Strategy Page:

... While the Taliban claim to have over 10,000 armed men in action across southern Afghanistan, it is believed that there are only about 2,000 of them. Actually, there may now be less than that, since morale among the Taliban is getting shaky. Traditionally, Afghan warriors will simply go home if they feel their side has poor chances of success. This is how many Taliban gunmen are beginning to feel, as it becomes obvious that the Taliban tactics for the big 2006 offensive are not working. The groups of Taliban cannot stand up to Coalition firepower, and Afghan soldiers and police fight the Taliban on at least equal terms....

Not only can they not fight on equal terms, they are not smart enough to avoid battle and live to fight another day. They have been giving battle and losing in large numbers for weeks now. Their battlefield losses are not sustainable, nor are their dessertions.

Update: Bill Roggio has a new report on The Taliban taking a pounding in Afghanistan:

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As the Coalition ramps up its forces and adds another 9,000 troops to the southeastern theater, the Taliban continues to take a pounding on the battlefield. The security situation in the region is fluid, but the Coalition is clearly gaining the upper hand as it moves forces and devotes energy into regions largely ignored by the central Afghan government. Coalition and Afghan sources estimate the Taliban strength between 2,000 to 5,000 active fighters, while the Taliban puts their strength at 12,000. Using the high Coalition estimate of 5,000 and an estimate of 1,800 Taliban killed and wounded, the Taliban has experienced a 36% attrition rate over the past three months. Using the Taliban estimate of 12,000 strong, the Taliban has experienced a 15% attrition rate. Both are frighteningly high numbers, and belie the reports of a sophisticated and powerful Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan.

To underscore this point, I sat in on a platoon level briefing prior to a Canadian assault earlier this month on the Dari and Panjwai districts in Kandahar province. Intelligence indicated the Taliban were massed in the hundreds, and possessed assault rifles, RPGs (rocket propelled grenades), mortars and other more sophisticated weaponry (I will omit the weapons for security purposes). The grunts of Charlie Company of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, mobile assault team and the tip of the spear for Canadian forces, laughed at the intelligence reports the Taliban possessed mortars and other weapons, as they have shown little inclination to bring these weapons to bear on the battlefield. Mortars are hardly sophisticated weapons, they are a staple weapon of platoon and company sized infantry units. That the Taliban cannot effectively deploy these weapons speaks volumes of their sophistication and training.

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He reports that the situation in Pakistan near its border is more favorable to the Taliban and the government of Pakistan appears unable to deal with the problem effectively. As evidence he sites Zawahiri's ability to turn out videos quickly with soem production values suggesting he is near an urban area. It is not clear why the Paks have not stepped up to this challenge, but if they do not the NATO forces may have to do so.