North Korea weakened by US win in Iraq
Lee Harris analyzes North Korea's current dilemma.
"...North Korea's most credible threat to us arises from the possibility that they might sell or provide their nuclear weapons to terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda. But the only way that North Korea could (accomplish) this, without risk to its own survival, is if there are other countries that could also plausibly be suspected of having supplied such weaponry. If North Korea is the only place in town to buy nuclear weapons, you do not need a Sherlock Holmes to find out who provided the terrorists with theirs. In which case, North Korea would face certain retaliation from the US, most likely in the form of a massive nuclear attack.
"This is why the collapse of Saddam Hussein has drastically weakened North Korea's hand. Before the Iraqi war, the chief leading suspect in the case of a hypothetical rogue nuclear strike would have been Iraq. But with the disappearance of Saddam Hussein, North Korea has been put in the uncomfortable position of being the number one suspect in the case of a rogue nuclear attack undertaken by any terrorist group against the US. And this severely reduces North Korea's power to blackmail us.
"Of course, this does not mean that North Korea cannot threaten us directly, the way the USSR did; but this is precisely the kind of threat that the US handled during the Cold War. If they strike us, we annihilate them.
"This is why those who say that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons brings us closer to the nightmare scenario of a rogue nuclear strike are making a statement that would have been chillingly accurate prior to the Iraqi War; but with the end of Saddam Hussein's regime, this is no longer the case, and for the simple reason that North Korea can no longer plausibly hide behind Saddam Hussein.
"Which means that North Korea, if they genuinely intended to provide nuclear weapons to terrorists, should have followed the exact opposite strategy from that mandated by the Doomsday scenario. As Dr. Strangelove might have put it, 'You fools! If you wished to sell nuclear weapons to terrorists, why did you tell everyone you had them in the first place? Why didn't you keep quiet?'
"The answer is simple: North Korea is not building weapons to be sold to terrorists, but to blackmail the US in helping it out of fear that North Korea might sell such weapons to terrorists; and that is quite a different thing."
"...Thus, counter-intuitively, the strongest possible move that the US could take against North Korea's effort to blackmail us has already been taken: it was the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime. And that is why the debate on the existence of Iraqi's WMD's completely misses the point: If, in fact, it can be demonstrated that Iraq was not even close to developing nuclear weapons, then it means that no Iraqi devices are out there floating around unaccounted for; hence, if any surface unexpectedly in an American city, there will be no doubt where it ultimately originated, and at whose door to place the blame. In short, it was through Iraq that the US called the North Korea bluff."
Lee Harris analyzes North Korea's current dilemma.
"...North Korea's most credible threat to us arises from the possibility that they might sell or provide their nuclear weapons to terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda. But the only way that North Korea could (accomplish) this, without risk to its own survival, is if there are other countries that could also plausibly be suspected of having supplied such weaponry. If North Korea is the only place in town to buy nuclear weapons, you do not need a Sherlock Holmes to find out who provided the terrorists with theirs. In which case, North Korea would face certain retaliation from the US, most likely in the form of a massive nuclear attack.
"This is why the collapse of Saddam Hussein has drastically weakened North Korea's hand. Before the Iraqi war, the chief leading suspect in the case of a hypothetical rogue nuclear strike would have been Iraq. But with the disappearance of Saddam Hussein, North Korea has been put in the uncomfortable position of being the number one suspect in the case of a rogue nuclear attack undertaken by any terrorist group against the US. And this severely reduces North Korea's power to blackmail us.
"Of course, this does not mean that North Korea cannot threaten us directly, the way the USSR did; but this is precisely the kind of threat that the US handled during the Cold War. If they strike us, we annihilate them.
"This is why those who say that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons brings us closer to the nightmare scenario of a rogue nuclear strike are making a statement that would have been chillingly accurate prior to the Iraqi War; but with the end of Saddam Hussein's regime, this is no longer the case, and for the simple reason that North Korea can no longer plausibly hide behind Saddam Hussein.
"Which means that North Korea, if they genuinely intended to provide nuclear weapons to terrorists, should have followed the exact opposite strategy from that mandated by the Doomsday scenario. As Dr. Strangelove might have put it, 'You fools! If you wished to sell nuclear weapons to terrorists, why did you tell everyone you had them in the first place? Why didn't you keep quiet?'
"The answer is simple: North Korea is not building weapons to be sold to terrorists, but to blackmail the US in helping it out of fear that North Korea might sell such weapons to terrorists; and that is quite a different thing."
"...Thus, counter-intuitively, the strongest possible move that the US could take against North Korea's effort to blackmail us has already been taken: it was the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime. And that is why the debate on the existence of Iraqi's WMD's completely misses the point: If, in fact, it can be demonstrated that Iraq was not even close to developing nuclear weapons, then it means that no Iraqi devices are out there floating around unaccounted for; hence, if any surface unexpectedly in an American city, there will be no doubt where it ultimately originated, and at whose door to place the blame. In short, it was through Iraq that the US called the North Korea bluff."
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